動態族群成長模式之模擬研究

生態研究中族群的發展一直是科學家希望探討的課題。成長模式的建立提供科學研究者一個推測族群發展的科學根據，如簡單生死過程、邏輯斯方程式、與不連續時間模型等。但在某些假設之下和有限度的考量環境影響因素之下所建立的預測模式，經過長時間的生死變化之後，模式所推測的結果並不一定會符合實際的族群數量。而受到時間及經費等因素的影響下，科學研究者往往無法直接對族群實體作長時間觀察，因此本研究藉由三種族群成長模式的基本假設，分別建立三種電腦模擬隨機生死的模擬方法，再藉由一些假設的條件，經由模擬成長曲線圖來討論模擬方法的結果與三種預測族群成長數學模式之間的差異。

關鍵字

動態族群成長模式；簡單生死過程；馬爾薩斯方程式；邏輯斯方程式；不連續時間模型； Lotka方程式；增殖率；成長曲線圖

並列摘要

The population growth is always a popular subject in the research of ecology. The population growth models can provide a scientific base for predicting the population growth, for instance, the simple birth and death process, the logistic equation and the discrete time model, etc. Because of the restriction of assumption and environmental variation, it is not sure that the results of the predicted model are still fit those of a real population. Sometimes it is difficult to observe a long-term population directly, because of limitation of time and funds, etc. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to establish these computer simulation by using three different population growth models and then to compare the results with those of the population growth models.

並列關鍵字

dynamic population growth model ； simple birth and death process ； Malthusian equation ； logistic equation ； discrete time model ； Lotka equation ； rate of increase ； growth curve

參考文獻

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動態族群成長模式之模擬研究

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