我國半導體產業人才供需概況與預測

Human Resourced Development Overview and Forecast of Taiwan' Semiconductor Industry

李信達(Shin-Da Lee) ； 鄭宇庭(Yu-Ting Cheng) ； 鄒幼涵(Yu-Han Tsou)

《Journal of Data Analysis》 5卷2期 (2010/04) Pp. 155-166

https://doi.org/10.6338/JDA.201004_5(2).0010

摘要

半導體產業的盛衰，代表著一個國家電子產業的興盛與否，半導體產業自上游晶圓、設計、到下游的晶圓製造、封裝、測試等，也愈來愈走專業分工與策略聯盟的路線。此研究目的為探討半導體產業領域的科技計畫研究人才培養上，供給及需求是否均衡發展。本研究藉由國科會資料庫的數據分析，其中86－97年為實際數據，97年以後為預測數據。由於資料為86年至97年之人力、經費與件數，因此藉由指數平滑法便是以最簡單與最具邏輯性的方法處理時間性資料，且預測準確度高。透過資料庫的內容可瞭解我國過去「半導體產業」的供需趨勢並推估研發人力之變動，以建立高級研發人力供需模式推估研發人力需求及提供培育人才政策。研究結果顯示98年度至102年度的半導體產業預測人數與預測件數為一遞增現象，趨勢為一遞增狀態，2006年以後在各廠商對碩士需求偏高的影響下，大學生則可能會出現供過於求的情況發生。因應該產業研發人力需求持續增加，大學院校廣設相關系所或增額招生，也反映於該領域相關系所碩博士生逐年增加，也使得有能力申請科技計畫的研究人員人數的擴張，此現象與本研究模型所預測之人數穩定上升的趨勢一致。

關鍵字

半導體產業 ； 指數平滑法

並列摘要

Rise and Fall of the semiconductor industry, representing a country whether or not the prosperity of the electronics industry, the semiconductor industry is divided into Wafer design, wafer fabrication, packaging, testing and so on, this study was to explore the field of the semiconductor industry, science and technology research program on personnel training, supply and demand is balanced development, This study is using the database analysis by the National Science Council information, , data is real value in 86 year to 97 year. After 97 year, those data is a forecast. The data is about manpower, funding and piece in 86 year to 97 year .With exponential smoothing method is the easiest and the most logical approach to the temporality of the information, and the prediction is true. Through the contents of the database can be to learn about our past, supply and demand trends of the semiconductor industry can estimate the changes in R&D manpower. It estimates R&D manpower demand and providing the policy to rear talents by establishing advanced R&D manpower supply and demand model.The result showed that the people forecast trend and document forecast trend will be a rise of semiconductor industry in 98 year to 102 year. After 2006, the master's high demand under the manufacturers, students are in university maybe too many. Due to manpower requirements should continue to increase in industrial R&D. Universities to establish more places in related college department. Also makes the ability to apply science and technology program to expand the number of researchers, this phenomenon' model predicted is be a steady increase, and this study is also too.

並列關鍵字

Semiconductor Industry ； Exponential Smoothing Methods

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