人口出生率與家庭撫育成本之間的轉移函數模型及應用

The Demographic Analysis Model of Transferring Regression-Time Series between CBR and Foster Cost

李哲(Zhe Li)

《Journal of Data Analysis》 5卷6期 (2010/12) Pp. 119-133

https://doi.org/10.6338/JDA.201012_5(6).0008

摘要

人口出生率是評價國家和地區人口發展速度的重要指標。文章以中國人口出生率為研究物件，選取改革開放30年的時間序列資料，構建了人口出生率與家庭撫育成本之間的轉移函數模型。旨在針對全社會人口出生率的變革過程和發展趨勢進行動態類比與短期預測，進而對撫養經濟成本類的出生率影響因數加以歸納和辨識。論文得出的結論證明，居民消費品價格指數僅在一定程度上對夫婦的生育意願產生微弱的負向影響，而經濟活動人口所占比重的增大將直接抑制人口出生率的上揚。

關鍵字

人口粗出生率 ； 家庭撫育成本 ； 轉移函數模型

並列摘要

The CBR is one of the most important indicators, which decide the population development speed. Taking Chinese CBR as the object of study, this paper mainly constructs a demographic Analysis model of transfer Regression-time Series, which is based on 30 years since the policy of reform and opening. Firstly, the proceeding courses and trends have been simulated dynamically, as well as been forecasted short-term. Secondly, the relationship between foster costs and population growth has been analyzed and taken into conclusions that, as the paper demonstrates, residents' consumable price index has a weak negative influence on the fertility inclination, while the proportion between population that involving economic activities and total population can directly suppresses the rising of CBR.

並列關鍵字

Crude birth rate ； Foster cost ； Model of transferring aggression-time Series

參考文獻

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