家庭消費支出的決定機制：以追蹤資料分析線性迴歸模型

隨著少子高齡化的發展趨勢，人口結構的轉變會為家庭消費帶來何種影響是現今社會所關注的話題。除了人口結構轉變是否會透過人口規模效果影響家庭可支配所得此一議題之外，隨著高齡人口比率上升，是否會導致整體經濟的儲蓄率下降，此些議題值得討論。再者，現代人平均壽命延長，以及社會保障政策之實施有可能會因利率和家庭金融資產的轉變而影響現在消費和未來消費。本研究主要之一的目的為，以少子高齡化的背景作為起點，從人口結構、所得結構、金融市場之變化中分析探討影響家庭消費支出之因素。本研究以小林航、大野太郎(2010)之預測模型為參考，在生命循環週期假說的架構下，利用OECD23國所建立的追蹤資料，探討家庭消費支出之影響因素。研究結果顯示，生命循環週期假說符合推論結果。

關鍵字

生命循環週期假說；追蹤資料分析；加權最小平方法

並列摘要

With the development of population decline and aging population, demographic changes will bring what impact household consumption society is now a topic of concern. In addition to whether demographic change will affect household disposable income by the population scale effect of this issue,the increase in the rate of population aging, will lead to economic decline in the savings rate as a whole, this issue is worth some discussion. Furthermore, the modern average life expectancy, and the implementation of social security policies may vary depending on changing interest rates and the impact of household financial assets, the present consumption and future consumption. The purpose of this paper was to low birthrate and aging population as a background, analysis investigate the population structure, structure, changes in the financial markets resulting affect household consumption expenditure.In this paper was used Hang Kobayashi, Taro Ono (2010) of the prediction model as a reference, in the Life-cycle hypothesis of architecture, utilizing panel data OECD23 country build, explore the influencing factors of household consumption expenditure. The results showed that the life-cycle hypothesis consistent with inference result.