商品貿易與對外直接投資：兩岸經貿實證

本研究根據Mundell（1957）、Markuson（1983）以及Svensson（1985）的文獻，建立實證迴歸式，探討台灣對大陸的淨出口與累計投資的關係，並考量加入WTO後是否對此關係產生改變。實證結果發現：（1）兩岸加入WTO之前，台灣對大陸淨出口與累計投資呈現相互替代之關係；兩岸加入WTO之後，台灣兩者關係呈現互補關係；（2）.因果關係檢定顯示兩岸加入WTO之前，上一期的出口會導致本期投資的減少；兩岸加入WTO之後，上期累計投資導致淨出口的增加；（3）.由於投資與淨出口呈現互補關係，且累計投資是淨出口的Granger因，因此本文建議對外投資的鬆綁應優先於貿易政策的鬆綁。

關鍵字

商品貿易；對外直接投資； Granger因果性

並列摘要

The purpose of this paper is to investgate the relation on commodity trade and foreign direct investment(FDI) between Taiwan and mainland China, and investgate how a structure change defineded as joining in WTO affects above relation. According to the literatures, including Mundell(1957), Markuson(1983) and Svensson(1985),we set empirical models to rxamine the above relation. We find that (1) Before joining in WTO,FDI serves as a substitute to commodity trade; After joining in WTO, FDI serves as a complement to commodity trade; (2) There is Granger Causality on the commodity trade and foreign direct investment between Taiwan and mainland China; (3) FDI serves as a complement to commodity trade. Therefore, the deregulation for FDI is first suggested.

並列關鍵字

commodity trade ； foreign direct investment ； Granger Causality ； Chow Test

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商品貿易與對外直接投資：兩岸經貿實證

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