花卉產銷特性之研究－以台灣地區為例

A Study on Ornamental Plants' Production and Distribution in Taiwan

陳惠欣(Hui-Hsin Chen) ； 黃登源(Deng-Yuan Huang)

《Journal of Data Analysis》 6卷4期 (2011/08) Pp. 13-42

https://doi.org/10.6338/JDA.201108_6(4).0002

摘要

農業為我國立國根本，近來隨產業發展，一直居於弱勢地位。然其中花卉產業，無論是種植面積亦或是產值，則不受產業結構改變與貿易自由化之衝擊，近20年來均有顯著成長，值得關注。尤其在我國致力發展之六大新興產業中，精緻農業為重要一環，其中在卓越農業方面，花卉為重要農作物，而蘭花更是農業旗艦產品之一。有鑑於此，花卉產業值得探究，然綜觀現行相關研究，主要為整體花卉產業研究、花卉運銷通路研究與花卉消費行為研究等三方面，惟對於花卉經營者之特性研究者，則較缺乏。除探討花卉產業發展外，本研究從花卉經營者出發，對行政院主計處94年農林漁牧業普查資料，採用分類與迴歸樹分析法，找出影響花卉產出之重要因子，並以羅吉斯迴歸分析建構產出預測模型。再以灰關聯分析及資料包絡分析法，探討經營績效，了解改善方向。最後應用行政院農業委員會農業統計年報資訊，對花卉產出進行灰預測，以掌握花卉未來發展。

關鍵字

分類與迴歸樹 ； 羅吉斯迴歸分析 ； 灰關聯係數 ； 資料包絡分析法 ； 灰預測

並列摘要

With recent rapid advancement of other industries, agriculture, the origin of our country, has been underprivileged; the acreage or the revenue of flower industry, on the other hand, has not been affected by the change of industry structure and the impact of trade liberalization and has been flourishing significantly in recent 20 years. High-end agriculture is one of the Six Emerging Industries to which Taiwan has been devoted. In high-end agriculture, flower is a critical product in excellence agriculture, and orchid is one of the flagship products. Hence, the flower industry is worthy of in-depth investigation. Yet, current related researches are focusing on 3 aspects-macroscopic flower industry, flower marketing channels and flower consumption behavior; the study on the characteristics of flower entrepreneurs is rarely found. Therefore, this study not only covers flower industry development but also observes from the viewpoints of flower business entrepreneurs. By use of classification and regression trees on 2005 Agricultural, Forestry, Fishery and Husbandry, Census published by Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, Executive Yuan, this study obtains critical factors that influence flower output and makes references for future development by bestowing an output prediction model based upon logistic regression analysis. Then, flower industry performance is put into inquisition by grey relational analysis and data envelopment analysis to explore the improvement of this industry. The application of Agricultural Statistics Yearbooks published by Council of Agriculture, Executive Yuan, is to process flower output grey prediction, baring future development of flower industry.

並列關鍵字

CART ； Logistic Regression Analysis ； Gray Relation Coefficient ； DEA ； Gray Prediction

參考文獻

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