應用集群分析於臺灣地區刑案犯罪之研究

A Study on the Application of Cluster Analysis in Taiwan's Crime

林釗榆(Zhao-Yu Lin) ； 鄭宇庭(Yu-Ting Cheng) ； 蘇志雄(Chih-Hsiung Su) ； 林岳龍(Yueh-Lung Lin)

《Journal of Data Analysis》 13卷1期 (2018/02) Pp. 35-48

https://doi.org/10.6338/JDA.201802_13(1).0003

摘要

近年來，隨著社會結構的變遷、都市化發展程度快速、人口密度集中以及大量人口流動性的影響，人民的生活環境與居住空間亦愈趨複雜，加上政局動盪經濟衰退，失業人口節節上升，社會價值觀的變化，使得臺灣地區的犯罪問題層出不窮，社會治安亦因此受到影響。犯罪案件的發生不僅對社會整體治安造成影響，更直接關係著人民生命財產安全及生活的品質，造成社會安全潛在及外顯的威脅。本文應用集群分析方法，以内政部警政署所公佈的臺灣地區各地區之「警政統計資料」為主，藉由實證研究以了解各行政地區之犯罪狀況與警察機關之破案績效。其中，犯罪嚴重程度之衡量指標分別以各刑案之犯罪發生率作為評估準則，而警察機關之偵查破案績效則以破獲率作為評核基準。依照發生率與破獲率之分群結果，建構治安狀況之分級指標，以了解我國主要之刑案犯罪於臺灣各地區的犯罪嚴重程度與其破案績效。

關鍵字

集群升析 ； 刑案犯罪 ； 刑案發生率 ； 破獲率

並列摘要

In recent years, with the social structure of the changes, the rapid development of urbanization, population density and a large number of population mobility, the people's living environment and living space has become increasingly complex, coupled with political turmoil recession, the unemployed population Rising, changes in social values, making the Taiwan region of the endless problems of crime, social security and therefore affected. The occurrence of criminal cases not only affects the overall law and order of society, but also directly related to the safety of life and property of the people and the quality of life, resulting in the potential and obvious threat of social security. In this paper, the use of cluster analysis methods to the Ministry of the Interior Police Department published in Taiwan the region's ＂police statistics＂ based, through empirical research to understand the administrative situation of the administrative situation and the police investigation of the performance. Among them, the crime severity of the indicators were the crime rate of each crime as the assessment criteria, and the police investigation and detection performance is based on the rate of failure as the assessment benchmark. According to the result of the occurrence rate and the breakout rate, the classification index of the law and order situation is built to understand the seriousness of the crime and the performance of the crime in Taiwan.

並列關鍵字

Cluster analysis ； Crime ； The incidence of criminal cases ； Detection rate

參考文獻

Gottfredson, M. and Hirschi, T., "A General Theory of Crime. Stanford", CA: Stanford University Press, 1990.

Kaufman L. and Rousseeuw P. J., "Finding Groups in Data: An Introduction to Cluster Analysis", John Wiley & Sons, New York, 1990.

Michalowski, R.J., "Order, Law, and Crime", Random House, New York, 1985.

Reiman, J., "The Rich Get Richer and The Poor Get Prison", 4th edition. Boston: Allyn and Bacon, 1995.

Rousseeuw, P.J., "Silhouettesa: A Graphical Aid to The Interpretation and Validation of Cluster Analysis", Journal of Computional and Applied Mathematics 20, 1987, 53-65.