匯率變動對貿易出口影響之研究－以台灣機電類對四大國之出口值為例

The Study on the Impact of Exchange Rate Changes on Exports: An Empirical Example of Taiwan Machinery and Electronic Exports to the Four-Nation

何碧蘭(Pi-Lan Ho) ； 陳天志(Tien-Chih Chen) ； 蔡孟易(Meng-Yi Tsai)

《桃園創新學報》 33期 (2013/12) Pp. 239-258

摘要

匯率風險對出口貿易的影響，一直備受爭議的研究議題，不論在理論或實證上，都沒有一致的結論。本文乃利用傳統的出口方程式，並加入實質匯率波動做為匯率風險的代理變數，並於匯率波動的衡量上，利用GARCH模型估計匯率波動，藉以驗證出口貿易與匯率風險間的關係，且探討1999年第一季至2007第四季機電業在面對中國、日本、美國及德國等四國市場（國家）供需情況下，因應匯率的變動是否有所差異。實證結果發現，台灣出口機電類產品到德國與日本會點顯著受到匯率波動的影響，而美國與中國大陸並沒有明顯證據支持；其次，台灣出口到美國與中國大陸並未考慮匯率所帶來的風險，而對於德國與日本，則會因為匯率風險而改變出口行為。

關鍵字

出口貿易 ； GARCH模型 ； 匯率風險 ； 匯率變動 ； 實質匯率

並列摘要

The effect of exchange rates risk on export trades, has been controversial research issues, whether in theory or empirical, are not the same conclusion. Our paper uses the equation of traditional exports, and joined the real exchange rate fluctuations as a proxy variables for exchange rates risk and exchange rate fluctuations measured in the use of GARCH model to estimate exchange rate fluctuations, in order to verify the relationship between export and exchange rates risk, and explore whether in response to changes in exchange rates vary from mechanical and electrical industry in the face of China, Japan, the United States and Germany markets (national) supply and demand situation from the first quarter 1999 to fourth quarter 2007. We find Taiwan's exports to Germany and Japan showed significant case of machinery and electronic, the other sample countries on the export of China and the U.S. industrial exports, the results showed no significant.

並列關鍵字

Export Trade ； GARCH Model ； Exchange Rates Risk ； Exchange Rates Changes ； Real Exchange Rate