設定地上權土地開發之決策分析架構

Superficies Investment Decision Analysis

郭軍男(Chun-Nan Kuo) ； 吳吉政(Jei-Zheng Wu)

《科際整合管理研討會》 2014第17屆 (2014/06) Pp. 416-430

https://doi.org/10.6495/CIMBM.2014.029

摘要

立法院2010年決議停止標售大台北地區面積500坪以上土地，國有財產局改為標售設定地上權土地，目前建商在大台北地區取得大面積所有權土地較為不易，開始將設定地上權標案列為選項。設定地上權土地所興建之建物具有固定使用年限、無土地所有權等特性，建商取得土地後須立即開發且在銷售良好的狀況下才能獲利。決策時所需考量因素較所有權土地標售案來的更多，在公司資源有限的狀況下，如何在決策過程將不確定因素納入考量來決定該標售案是否值得投標。過往研究多以質化方法來評選所有權土地開發決策方案，本研究以紫式決策分析為主架構，輔以情境規劃、決策樹兩種質化與量化的研究方法，在決策流程上將所需考慮的因素納入並以影響圖呈現，系統化產生情境因子與數據來源，找出決策點與情境點後以樹狀方式展開使方案演進有著清楚的脈絡，決策者可以盤點土地開發每個情境的金錢價值，依據最後結果，決策者可以找出最穩健不會後悔的決策方案。本研究以台灣某建商得標的地上權標案為案例，藉由相關分析後，所得出的結論與建商的開發團隊結論相同，相較於以質化方法來評選決策方案，本研究所運用方式在實務運作上確實可行。

關鍵字

設定地上權 ； 紫式決策分析架構 ； 情境規劃 ； 影響圖 ； 決策樹

並列摘要

The superficies investment decision faces challenging future uncertainties. It possesses a sequence of decisions including bid-or-not, product planning, and timing selection. In each stage, high risk choices must be made in prior to realization of uncertain events under which benefits are marginal because the superficies are not perceived as high value due to traditional land ownership thinking in Taiwan. The current practice relies on expert experiences and thus demands a comprehensive decision analysis model that supports high decision quality. Therefore, this study aims to develop a UNISON decision analysis framework that integrates qualitative scenario planning and quantitative decision tree analysis to evaluate multi-stage superficies alternatives. This study specially applies the min-max regret concept in the multi-stage decision so that the uncertainties of superficies decisions can be handled. A case study result shows that it would be better if the case company has not decided to bid the superficies and to invest in the following real estate projects which turned out a negative impact. This case study shows the viability of the proposed model to superficies practice.

並列關鍵字

Superficies ； UNISON decision analysis framework ； Scenario planning ； Influence diagram ； Decision tree