A Real Option Framework for Evaluating Infrastructure Investments

實質選擇權模型與基礎投資計畫之評估

Nalin Kulatilaka ； 王雍智(George Y. Wang)

《中國財務學刊》 4卷2期 (1996/10) Pp. 1-19

https://doi.org/10.6545/JoFS.1996.4(2).1

摘要

本文應用實質選擇權（Real Options）的分析方法評估基礎投資計畫（Infrastructure Investments），以補救傳統的現金流量折現分析（Discounted Cash Flow Approach）忽略選擇彈性的缺失。作者以為基礎投資之評估，應著重在基礎投資所要達成的組織能量（Organizational Capability），而非計畫本身；據此，本文提出一結構化的實質選擇權模型，經由體現組織能量中的實質選擇權，求取組織能量的真實價值，而決策者亦可為由比較各投資計畫的價值，決定更符合企業長期目標的投資策略。模擬的結果顯示本模型在計畫評估上優於傳統的現金流量折現法；同時，本模型亦顯示，實質選擇權可有效的降低投資計畫的風險。

關鍵字

現金流量折現分析 ； 基礎投資 ； 實質選擇權 ； 組織能量

並列摘要

This paper outlines the use of real options techniques to value infrastructure projects as a remedy to this shortcoming of discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis, which fails to adequately capture managerial flexibility to adapt and -revise later decisions in response to unexpected market conditions. We focus on investments as a way to procure operational capabilities that are more broadly defined than the traditional scope of investments. Through identifying such options, managers can determine an investment strategy that is better aligned with the overall corporate goals than by taking a project-by-project view. We use simulations to illustrate the implementation of our framework. Our results show the significant advantages over conventional DCF methods as a project evaluation too l. Even more importantly, we show the how the appropriate choice of investments can be used to manage the risk profile of projects.

並列關鍵字

Discounted Cash Flow Analysis ； Infrastructure Investments ； Real Options ； Organizational Capability