全球資本流入在國際整合過程中,所扮演的重要性與日俱增,而且在亞洲金融風暴之後,資本流入對銀行體系健全性的影響,又成為關鍵的議題。然而,過去學術上的研究卻極少討論這兩者的關連。本文的主旨即是研究資本流入是否對「銀行脆弱性」有不利的影響。如果有,資本流入是如何影響銀行體系呢?這是個實證的問題。本文以1993-1998年資料為樣本,研究30個新興市場/國家,發現在「總體環境不健全」之下,資本流入確實會對銀行體系構成威脅,而且有不對稱效果存在,支持我們的假說,例如,外人證券投資在「經常帳過度惡化」、在「經常帳過度惡化」、「過度投資」的總體脆弱性之下,資本流入對銀行體系構成威脅的程度增加,但在「總體健全區」則未有一敘的結論。而其它資本流入,如FDI、FOI及FA在「過度消費」的總體脆弱性之下,對銀行體系有不利影響。
This paper explores whether or not capital inflows will result in financial fragility. The issue fall s into an empirical question. In this paper. we study the effect and transmission process for capital inflows on financial fragility . We focus on a sample o f 30 emerging countries during the period of 1993-1998 with annual data. We separate countries into macro vulnerability and macro stability environment. We find that there exists an asymmetric effect. that is. under macro vulnerability environment. capital inflows will indeed threaten banking vulnerability, but not vice versa . The impacts of capital flow components are al so different. For example. FPI is found to have strong asymmetric effect in macro vulnerability environment such as current account over deficit. over-investment and over-consumption. Though FDI. FOI and FA threat banking system under over-consumption environment.