水庫安全蓄水線及其於乾旱預警之應用

虞國興 ； 朱志彬 ； 李元喻

《土木水利》 49卷6期 (2022/12) Pp. 80-83

https://doi.org/10.6653/MoCICHE.202212_49(6).0013

摘要

受氣候變遷影響，全球極端氣候與罕見水文事件發生頻仍。今（2022）年歐洲面臨500年來最嚴重旱災，包含歐洲大陸西部、中部和南部地區近半個歐洲均遭受嚴重乾旱影響。我國在2020～2021年亦歷經一場百年大旱，而今（2022）年入夏以來，全台的降雨量偏少，目前南部水庫之入流量與蓄水量持續下降，水情不容樂觀。本文回顧2022年歐洲大旱過程中利用傳統SPI進行各區域之乾旱監測方式，嘗試採用「變動尺度之SPI」之乾旱監測方法，以改善提升SPI評估乾旱之持續性與嚴重度之研判能力。此外，本文又提出「水庫安全蓄水線」之概念，作為乾旱預警之評估方法。本文以石門水庫灌區為案例，實際應用於2020年二期作之停灌決策；經由2020～2021年水庫之實際蓄水量驗證結果可知，水庫安全蓄水線在供灌決策實務上確實可行，可提供作為研判未來可能發生之嚴重乾旱狀況，及早預警並啟動各種因應抗旱措施之實務應用參考。

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