A Suitable Structure of Policy Arguments for the View of Multiple-Cue: A Case of LLRW Final Disposal

適於多元線索觀點之政策論證架構：以低放射性廢棄物最終處置設施為例

張寧(Ning Chang)

《政策與人力管理》 12卷1期 (2021/06) Pp. 69-98

https://doi.org/10.29944/PPM.202106_12(1).0005

摘要

Policy argument is a suitable policy analysis method in a plural society, but the relationship between ＂policy information,＂ ＂warrants＂ and ＂claims＂ are less flexible. Social judgment theory (SJT) based on the lens model, on the contrary, can be used to analyze the weights among the different factors out of the same result and compare various stakeholders' judgment policy. Thus, SJT can offer a different analytical approach from the reasoning process of policy argument. This study suggests a hierarchical structure of policy arguments combined with the multiple-cue of SJT. Using this hierarchical structure, we can explore how various stakeholders choose modes of policy argumentation and distribute weights to the modes, and also how the different plausibility ratings shift among various policy information and claims. The judgment policy of stakeholders can help to ascertain source of conflict. Furthermore, this structure will test the mediating effects and interaction effects of policy argument modes and policy information by multiple regression analysis. This study takes the final repository of low-level radioactive waste (LLRW) as a judgment task. The results show that the subjects can integrate different argument modes at the same time and that some argument modes interact with original policy information and mediate the relationship between original policy information and final subject judgments. It means that the hierarchical structure can explain the process of policy arguments partially.

關鍵字

Policy Argument ； Social Judgment Theory ； Multiple-cue ； Judgment Policy ； Low Level Radioactive Waste

並列摘要

政策論證是適合於多元社會的政策分析工具，但政策論證的結構對資訊、依據理由與結論間的相對關係較欠缺彈性。相對地，社會判斷理論（Social Judgment Theory, SJT）的多元線索架構，則可用以分析產生同一結果之不同原因間的相對權重，深入比較當事人間的判斷原則，因此能提供迥異於政策論證的推理過程的分析途徑。本研究提出一個可結合社會判斷理論多元線索觀點的多層級政策論證架構。用以探討不同當事人群體對多數並存的政策論證模式如何取捨並分配其權重，以及當事人面對不同類型的政策資訊與政策主張時可信度的變化，以了解當事人群體的認知差異與衝突來源。甚至得以多元迴歸分析檢驗政策論證的中介作用是否存在，以及單純的政策資訊與所使用的論證模式間是否有交互作用。本研究以核廢料最終處置場為例進行探討，結果發現受測者能同時整合相異論證模式的多元線索，某些特定的政策資訊與論證模式則會產生交互作用以及中介的效果。顯示多層級論證結構可以部份解釋多元線索的論證過程。

並列關鍵字

政策論證 ； 社會判斷理論 ； 多元線索 ； 判斷對策 ； 低放射性廢棄物