劳动力市场的自然观察与CIER指数研究

Natural observation of the labor market and research on CIER index

丁大建(Da-Jian Ding) ； 耿林(Lin Gen) ； 崔钰雪(Yu-Xue Cui)

《就業與勞動關係季刊》 2卷2期 (2012/09) Pp. 140-154

https://doi.org/10.6674/TWELRQ.201209_2(2).0001

摘要

中国大陆劳动力市场指标体系中失业率指标（城镇登记失业率）的缺陷与失效，使中国劳动力市场缺失了指标性的动态数据指引，从而令对中国劳动力市场变动的宏观分析与预测面临诸多困难。基于一个覆盖全国30多个大中城市的网络求职与招聘数据（智联招聘网的后台登记数据），构建的CIER就业竞争指数，或在一定意义上可替代失业率指标，用于对劳动力市场变动的自然观察与宏观分析。本文从描述和实证两个层次上，对CIER指数的来源与构建、CIER指数的理论基础、CIER指数的市场特性与局限、CIER指数与多个宏观经济变量的关联性实证分析作了探讨，阐述了该指数的意义、作用、功能、特性及理论基础和可能存在的局限。期望未来CIER指数在对中国大陆劳动力市场的变动和趋势观察中，能发挥更大的作用，获得社会更广泛的接受。

關鍵字

CIER就业竞争指数 ； 失业率 ； 劳动力市场 ； 自然观察

並列摘要

The defects and failure of the unemployment rate indicator(registered urban unemployment rate) in the mainland China labor market indicators system make the Chinese labor market missing dynamic data indicative guidance ,resulting in great difficulties in macroeconomic analysis and forecast of the changes in Chinese labor market. Based on the online job research and recruitment data covering more than 30 large and medium-sized cities (registration data from Zhaopin.com),the paper constructs the CIER employment competition index, which may be an alternative unemployment indicator in a certain degree when conducting natural observation and macro-analysis of the labor market changes. From the descriptive and empirical level, the paper gives a detailed introduction of the CIER index, including its source, construction method, market characteristics and limitations. Besides, through correlation analysis between CIER index and several macroeconomic variables, the paper discussed the significance, functions, characteristics, and the theoretical basis and limitations of the index. We are expecting that CIER index can play a greater role with wider social acceptance in the changes and trends observed of the mainland China labor market.

並列關鍵字

CIER index ； Labor market ； Nature observation ； Unemployment rate