幼兒「不確定性」概念表現與影響因素之探討

本研究探討幼兒「不確定性」概念的表現，以及其影響因素，本研究因加入重要的投入變項預估影響幼兒不確定性思維的因素，有別於過去的研究，只針對幼兒單一構念做評量。本研究設計15個作業調查及訪談195名4～6歲幼兒不確定性概念的發展與表現。結果發現幼兒對事件發生的可能性能做正確判斷，超過64%以上的幼兒能正確理解事件的發生的因果關係，並且超過80%的幼兒能說明自己判斷的理由。在猜測事件發生的可能性、比較兩事件發生的可能性及相關概念上，大部分的幼兒會使用數量大小做判斷，但幼兒欠缺對事件發生具有機會相等的概念。另外，研究也發現影響幼兒在不確定概念作業表現上，使用解題策略與口語能力皆為重要影響因素，幼兒在解題時會使用比較多、比較少等語彙做回應。至於，背景變項中有些變項對幼兒不確定性概念的各別概念表現上也有影響。

關鍵字

不確定性；幼兒數學；機率思維

並列摘要

This study investigated the ability of young children to think about uncertainty in mathematics and what factors affected that ability. The study differed from previous studies, which focused on the evaluation of a single construct, in that the most important independent variables influencing thinking about uncertainty were added. The study adapted 15 tasks designed to survey and interview 195 young children aged 4-6 years, and the study investigated the ability of young children to think about uncertainty and the factors influencing their development of the ability. The findings indicated that 4-6-year-old children were already aware of the concept of uncertainty but lacked knowledge of equal chance. They could predict the possibility of events occurring, compare the likelihood of two events, and solve problems related to uncertainty using objective methods. Strategic and verbal abilities were the key factors influencing the ability of young children to analyze uncertainty. As for the background variables, some of the variables also have an impact on the performance of the concept of children's uncertainty.

並列關鍵字

uncertainty ； childhood mathematics ； probability thinking

參考文獻

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幼兒「不確定性」概念表現與影響因素之探討

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