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A Forecasting Model for Brown Planthopper Population Density
摘要
Box-Jenkins methodology is involved to fit an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model for population densities of the brwon planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens. The resultant model consists of two density regulating components, the seasonal regulating component and the random regulating component; the former makes the population growth to follow a pattern, but the latter to shift from the pattern and often masks the regularity density change contributed by the former. To improve forecasting, analysis of residuals is necessary. Possibility of improvement is seen in the example of evaluating the predation effect of Lycosa on the insect, based on the residuals from the ARIMA models fitted to these two insects.
關鍵字
無資料延伸閱讀
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