區域全面經濟夥伴關係協定生效後新加坡對中國的避險策略分析

2022年元旦，以東協（東南亞國家協會，The Association of Southeast Asian Nations, ASEAN，簡稱東協）成員國組成，最終目標是取消成員國之間90％以上商品關稅的《區域全面經濟夥伴關係協定》（Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, RCEP）正式生效。在15個成員國中，包括新加坡、中國等10國已經通過國內審核，剩下的5國將陸續通過審核。RCEP生效後，像新加坡這樣具有特殊地緣政治性的小國，在東南亞地區強權權力分配不確定、美中持續抗衡的情勢下，面對中國將在該協定內積極主導，以及作為中國在東協國家中最大的貿易夥伴，新加坡如何在一貫的「經濟互賴、海路自由、東協同盟、促進區域權力穩定平衡現狀」的外交主張下，繼續對中國實施「避險」（hedging）策略。因此，本文以新加坡為例，分析在RCEP生效後，新加坡在既定的外交政策下，如何對中國實施「避險」策略，避免被迫「選邊站」，來達到國家維持對外政策的獨立自主性以爭取最大的利益。同時本文透過分析以往新加坡對中國實施避險策略的行為模式，發現美國的亞洲政策、中國的反避險策略及新加坡執政者個人特質、國內政經發展等因素，皆影響新加坡對中國實施避險策略的成效。

關鍵字

東協； RCEP ；地緣政治；小國；避險

並列摘要

On New Year's Day 2022, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which is composed of member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN, Taiwan referred to as ＂ASEAN＂), with the ultimate goal of eliminating tariffs on more than 90% of goods among the member countries, came into effect. Among the 15 member states, 10 countries have passed the domestic audit, and the remaining five countries will pass the audit one after another. After the RCEP came into effect, a small country with special geopolitical nature like Singapore, facing the uncertain distribution of power in Southeast Asia and the continuous confrontation between the United States and China, faces China's active leadership in the agreement, and China's role as China in the ASEAN. How does Singapore, the country's largest trading partner, continue to implement a ＂hedging＂ strategy towards China under its consistent diplomatic proposition of ＂economic interdependence, freedom of sea routes, ASEAN, and promoting a stable balance of power in the region＂. Therefore, this article takes Singapore as an example to analyze how Singapore can implement a ＂hedging＂ strategy towards China under its established foreign policy after the RCEP came into effect, so as to avoid being forced to ＂take side＂, so as to achieve the country's independence in maintaining foreign policy. for maximum benefit. At the same time, this paper analyzes the behavior pattern of Singapore's hedging strategy towards China in the past, and finds that factors such as the US' Asia policy, China's anti-hedging strategy, the personal characteristics of Singapore's rulers, and domestic political and economic development, all affect the effectiveness of Singapore's hedging strategy towards China.

並列關鍵字

ASEAN ； RCEP ； geopolitics ； small state ； hedging

參考文獻

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