海軍防空作戰模擬模式比較性研究

A Comparative Study of Naval Task Group Air Defense Operations

盛培智

《海軍學術雙月刊》 48卷5期 (2014/10) Pp. 59-77

https://doi.org/10.6237/NPJ.201410_48(5).0004

摘要

海軍防空作戰模擬模式比較性研究一、臺灣為一個海島型國家，國家生存的關鍵因素即為海上交通線的確保，因此，海軍在臺澎防衛作戰中扮演著舉足輕重的角色，並且在臺澎防衛作戰中，關係到海上交通線維護與聯合截擊作戰之成敗，而艦隊防空作戰的成敗攸關整體艦隊的存活。因此，艦隊防空作戰是一種講求整體戰力發揮的作戰，採取積極之作為，方可在面對嚴峻考驗中，提升艦隊存活率。二、在本研究中，我們是以不同的支（艦）隊組合為研究探討的主軸，對於不同兵力的投入以及火力分配來探討戰損率；本研究參考美國海軍作戰分析(Naval Operations Analysis)，採馬可夫鏈理論架構以Matlab程式建模，藉程式運算結果與圖形分析多波次威脅與不同防空武器性能下相對作戰能力，分析人員可藉本模式與延伸性防空模擬分析模式(Eadsim)比對、並以馬可夫鏈防禦對戰模式驗證研究是否符合模擬實況，來探討兩軍作戰在一定的限制下其戰鬥過程的戰損，做為海軍特遣支隊兵、火力的配置之決策參考方向，發揮整體戰力。

關鍵字

馬可夫鏈 ； 延伸性防空模擬分析模式 ； 戰損率 ； 縱深防禦 ； 防空

並列摘要

1. Taiwan is an island country, the key to survive is to protect the sea transportation route, therefore the navy is playing a very important role in Taiwan Defense Operation, and within the Taiwan Defense Operation, will influence the success or failure of keeping the sea transportation route and Joint Persuit Operation, the success or failure of fleet anti-air operation will influence the survival of the whole fleet. Therefore, the fleet anti-air operation is an operation of integrated combat capability elaboration, which take active actions in order to confront the severe situations to raise the fleet survival. 2. In this research will discuss the different fleet combinations confronting different enemy forces and the distribution of fire power in order to evaluate the damage rate. This research take reference of US Navy Naval Operations Analysis, which adopt the Markov chain theory as structure using Matlab modelings, by program and graghic evaluations to analyze the operation capability within multiwave of threats and anti-air weapon systems. The analyist can use this model to check up with Eadsim, and using the Markov defense opposition model to verify whether conform with the actual simulated situations, to discuss the damage of a combat process of two opponent forces in a certain restrain, in order to provide a decision making guidance to deploy navy task force and weapon system distribution to elaborate the integrated combat cacpability.

並列關鍵字

Markov chain ； Eadsim ； damage rate ； deep defense ； anti-air defense