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從中俄「海上聯合2015(I)」海軍操演論中國大陸軍事外交之戰略意涵

An Analysis of PRC's Military-Diplomacy Strategic Implication: Observed from The Chinese-Russian Naval Maneuvers of "Joint Sea 2015(I)"

摘要


一、習近平於2015年5月出訪俄國,參與俄羅斯慶祝二戰勝利70周年的閱兵活動,兩國並舉行「海上聯合-2015(I)」海軍操演,隨後又共同召開第十一輪戰略安全磋商;而中國大陸在新的《中國的軍事戰略》白皮書中亦強調,深化中俄兩軍在全面戰略協作夥伴關係框架下的交流合作。顯見中俄在軍事外交上一連串的密切互動,有朝向類「準軍事同盟」關係發展的趨勢。二、按照國際安全理論的邏輯,在無政府狀態的國際體系下,相互競爭權力的國家間易導致安全困境的形成;一旦陷入安全困境之中,則國家會向外尋求合作,以改變安全困境的螺旋上升狀態。本文自中俄「海上聯合-2015(I)」海軍操演為觀察點,探討中國大陸的軍事外交在功能交換之過程中,藉與俄羅斯聯合軍演展現其在亞、歐的影響力,且避免與美國在東北亞對峙出更為緊張的關係,翻轉東西戰略態勢並支持其「一帶一路」經濟發展戰略。

並列摘要


1. PRC's leader Xi Jinping, in May 2015, was invited to Russian's biggest military parade, marking 70 years since victory in World War II, and attended the first stage of naval maneuvers of "Joint Sea 2015(I)". Then, took place the 11th Round of China-Russia Strategic Security Consultation. In the other side, the PRC's new white paper on "China's Military Strategy" even placed its military emphasis on enhancing Sino-Russian partnership of strategic coordination. Apparently, these two countries are heading towards to Paramilitary alliance in military-diplomacy. 2. In accordance with theories of international security, states seeking for power will eventually lead to security dilemma in anarchy of international system. Once a state falls into the security dilemma, it will definitely seek for cooperation with other states without letting spiral up and out of control. This article will discuss PRC's military-diplomacy strategies on its influence in the Euro-Asian region by holding naval maneuvers of "Joint Sea 2015(I)". By doing this, it will not only reverse the current situation of East-West strategic situation and help ease the tension between China and United Sates in North East Asia, but also be good for its economic development strategies of "One Belt and One Road".

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