運用系統動態學探討艦艇作戰軍官人力之研究

The Application of System Dynamics to Analyze the Warship Officers Manpower

劉培林 ； 劉達生 ； 莊鼎睿

《海軍學術雙月刊》 51卷6期 (2017/12) Pp. 139-153

https://doi.org/10.6237/NPJ.201712_51(6).0010

摘要

一、海軍艦艇作戰軍官隨著國防人事精簡政策陸續實施，導致軍官人力縮減，但我國海軍艦艇數量及工作任務未因人力縮減而減少，進而使現有人員的負擔及任務加重，恐將導致艦艇作戰軍官人數供需失衡，進而影響我國建軍構想的整體發展。二、影響海軍艦艇作戰軍官人力供需系統的因素甚多，包括人力供給、任務需求及工作負荷…等，彼此互相影響，且具有環環相扣的因果互動關係。三、本研究運用系統動態學，找出影響艦艇作戰軍官人力供需系統之關鍵變數及其因果互動關係，據以建構動態分析模型，並運用此模型進行政策分析與模擬，探討不同政策（海軍官校招生員額數、服役年限），對於總體軍官供需比及工作負荷之影響趨勢，其相關政策建議將於文內探討。

關鍵字

艦艇作戰軍官人力 ； 海軍官校招生 ； 系統動態學

並列摘要

1. Navy under the downsizing policy of MND (Ministry of National Defense) has been implemented at substantial reductions in military officer manpower. However, at the meantime the number of warships and missions has not been reduced; as a result, each officer share more burdens and tasks. Therefore, the warship officers' requirement and supply became unbalanced; thereby, this situation will affect the overall development of our military capabilities buildup. 2. There are many factors affecting the warship officers' manpower supply and demand, such as manpower supply, task demand and workload, etc. All these factors interact with each other, and would have a domino effect. 3.Applying systems dynamics approach, the causal relationship of the supply and demand for navy officers system's critical variables can be modeled. This model is used to analyze several policies on some critical outputs, such as the influence of the supply and demand of warship officer manpower, workload. The policies including naval academy recruitment policy, extend the service life of warship officer. Relevant recommendations will also be discussed in this study.

並列關鍵字

System dynamics ； Navy warship ； Warship officer manpower