以系統動態學探討國軍駕駛編配比率對運輸安全影響之研究

台灣近年在國防預算與組織逐年減少與精簡，而任務需求不受影響下，軍用車輛事故率有逐年上升之趨勢。一般運輸事故發生，無論人員與車輛之受傷或撞損，都反映在財產與戰力之損失。而軍車運輸安全是受運輸派遣、車輛委商維修作業及運輸事故等有關因素影響之動態複雜系統，若能從整體觀點來進行探討，將可研擬出較適當的改善策略。本研究首先針對影響軍車事故發生之關鍵因素及其互動關係進行探討，並運用系統動態學適合處理動態複雜問題之特性，建構軍車運輸安全管理模型。其次，運用此模型，在任務需求不變原則，分別改變駕駛編配比率（平均每輛車配賦駕駛之比值）70%、90%、100%予以模擬，以進行可行性政策分析探討。研究結果顯示：當駕駛編配比率達100%，事故數及事故率有較佳之改善趨勢，進而提供管理者對運輸安全政策之制定參考。

關鍵字

駕駛編配比率；運輸安全；系統動態學

並列摘要

With the diminishing defense budget in Taiwan in recent years, there’s an increasing trend of military vehicle accidents year by year. These accidents have been reflected in losses to properties and combat forces both in personnel injuries and vehicle damages. In nature, the military vehicle transportation safety is a complicated dynamic system involving relevant elements with the aspects of transportation dispatch, outsource vehicle maintenance and driver workload, etc. It would be difficult to set up effective improvement strategies if the issue is not studied from an overall viewpoint.This study was initially conducted by focusing on key elements affecting the occurrence of military vehicle accidents and the interactions contained therein. As a follow-up, the characteristics of System Dynamics in effectively handling complicated dynamic issues were applied to construct a model of military vehicle transportation safety. Based on the said model and under the premise of constant budget resources, the driver dispatch rate (the ratio between the dispatched driver number and the vehicle number, i.e. 70%, 90%, 100%) is adjusted respectively to analyze the effects of transportation safety. The research results indicated the following: When the driver dispatch rate reaches 100%, a more satisfactory improvement trend is seen for the accident count. In this regard, the reasons leading to the said result and the meaning for management will also be discussed in the article.

並列關鍵字

Driver Dispatch Rate ； Transportation Safety ； System Dynamics

國際替代計量

以系統動態學探討國軍駕駛編配比率對運輸安全影響之研究

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