Reinforcing Wedging: Assessing China's Southeast Asia Policy in the Context of Indo-Pacific Strategy

Ruonan Liu

《The China Review An Interdisciplinary Journal on Greater China》 23卷1期 (2023/02) Pp. 277-306

摘要

From the Asian financial crisis in 1997 to the year 2010, China's self-restraint and strategic reassurance toward ASEAN countries created a favorable regional environment for its rise. After 2010, the South China Sea disputes and the Sino-U.S. strategic competition intensified. During this period, China simultaneously pursued a wedging strategy which aims to avoid Southeast Asia completely turning toward the United States. Since the Trump administration launched the Indo-Pacific strategy, Sino-U.S. relations have transited from competition to confrontation, significantly increasing the importance of Southeast Asia as a buffer between China and the U.S. At the same time, intensified economic dependence on China for ASEAN countries, and the uncertainty surrounding the U.S.'s strategic attention to the region have increased the costs and risks of alienating China. Both China and ASEAN countries can no longer afford further deterioration in their relations. In the context of the Indo-Pacific strategy, the primary goal of China's Southeast Asia policy is to reduce ASEAN countries' willingness and ability to rely on external powers to exert pressure on it, while strengthening the region's function as a bridge to the global industrial chain and undermining the legitimacy of the Indo-Pacific strategy through advocating ASEAN-led multilateralism. China's Southeast Asia policy effectiveness depends on Beijing's ability to alleviate the internal dilemma within its policy goal, which has been intensified by the Indo-Pacific Strategy. Currently, the Indo-Pacific Strategy has gained some support in Southeast Asia and has weakened the regional countries' domestic support for pro-China policy. Future challenges in China's relations with ASEAN countries do not depend exclusively on the dynamics of the Sino-U.S. relations, given that domestic political changes in key regional countries are closely tied to China's relations with the region.