- 期刊
An Optimized FNGBM(1,1) Model for Forecasting the Tea Production in China
並列摘要
In recent years, the tea economy has become one of the important pillars of my country's agricultural economy. As a major tea producer and consumer country, China needs to adjust and optimize the policy space of the tea industry according to the situation of tea production, and formulate practical economic policies. Therefore, accuracy and trustable forecasting of future tea production is conducive to promoting the steady operation of my country's tea industry and ensuring the healthy and orderly development of my country's tea market. In this paper, a novel nonlinear grey Bernoulli model with Fourier combined model, abbreviated as FNGBM (1,1) model, is proposed to forecast the tea production of China for the period from 2021 to 2030. Further, an optimization algorithm is used to search optimal system parameters. The optimized FNGBM (1,1) model presents high accuracy in all cases. The modelling results help governments to develop future policies regarding tea industries and formulate feasible economic policies.
延伸閱讀
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