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A study on the Transmission Effect of RMB Exchange Rate fluctuation on Import Price after Exchange Rate Reform--Based on Vector Auto-regression Model

摘要


This paper explores the influence of exchange rate fluctuation on import price at the second moment level. Based on the general analysis framework of ERPT and GARCH (1, 1) model and VAR model, this paper empirically analyzes the transmission effect of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on import price from the level of exchange rate fluctuation (second moment), and puts forward that RMB exchange rate risk directly affects import price, and the exchange rate risk is completely transferred to import price 16 months after exchange rate reform in 2005. The increase of production cost of foreign manufacturers and RMB exchange rate have obvious influence on import price index. The rise in the import price index came more from its own stickiness.

參考文獻


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