Research on Kunming House Price Model Based on Bubble Measurement

Shuying Zhang

《International Journal of Social Science and Education Research》 2卷7期 (2019/10) Pp. 150-158

https://doi.org/10.6918/IJOSSER.201910_2(7).0025

摘要

Stabilizing housing prices, preventing and resolving the real estate bubble is an important support for the healthy development of a regional economy. The theoretical community currently lacks an accurate indicator system for measuring real estate bubbles, and it also lacks a theoretical model for measuring house prices based on bubble indicators. This study obtained the real estate, population and other economic data of Kunming from 2002 to 2017 through the website of the Bureau of Statistics. The VAR model and multiple linear regression models were constructed. The analysis of the housing price and house price ratio, the growth rate ratio and the vacancy rate in Kunming were analyzed. The relationship between the bubble metrics answers how the housing prices are affected by the above three bubble metrics and provides a model for predicting the future housing prices of residential housing in Kunming.

關鍵字

Residential commodity housing ； House price ； Bubble risk ； VAR model ； Multiple regression model

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