Urban Slum Upgrading, Migration and Household Structure

Developing countries spend significant amounts of their budgets annually on urban slum upgrading activities, but rigorous evidence on the impact of these programs and the mechanisms behind is very limited. Migration is a critical component to any upgrading activity. The migration theory explaining how households choose between living in rural areas and moving to urban settlements is well established; however, the empirical evidence supporting this claim is still lacking. This project utilizes unique data from three World Bank slum upgrading projects - Limpopo and the Free State in South Africa and Dar es Salaam in Tanzania - to examine the relationship between upgrading intervention and migration or household structure change. All three projects show that household sizes increased after the upgrading intervention. I find that in Limpopo, households in the treatment area have significantly higher number of children, which echoes the literature that slum upgrading makes people bring their children from their rural hometown due to the improved living environment. In Free State, the difference between receiving top structure without sanitation and receiving full service is not significant. For treatment areas in Limpopo and households receiving upgrading earlier in Free State, there is a higher ratio of extended family members and lower ratio of immediate family members.

關鍵字

slum upgrading ； migration ； household structure ； impact evaluation ； community infrastructure

並列摘要

發展中國家每年投注鉅額進行都市貧民區之改造，然而究竟改造方案如何影響人民的生活，則仍有待更多嚴謹評估。人口遷移在改造方案中扮演重要的角色，儘管城鄉遷移理論已經相對成熟，仍亟需可以檢證遷移理論的實證研究。本研究聚焦於都市貧民區改造與家戶結構調整或人口遷移之關聯，使用世界銀行之獨特資料進行實證探討。研究結果顯示改造方案完成之後，在南非林波波省、南非自由邦與坦尚尼亞三蘭港三地，都出現家戶規模增大的情形，而南非林波波省貧民區將原本寄養在鄉下的孩童接來同住；自由邦未取得衛生系統的家戶與取得完整服務的家戶在家戶結構上沒有顯著的差別，但較早取得衛生系統的家戶以及林波波省獲得改造的家戶擴展家庭成員比例較高、核心家庭成員比例較低。

並列關鍵字

貧民區改造；人口遷移；家戶結構；成效評估；社區基礎建設

國際替代計量

Urban Slum Upgrading, Migration and Household Structure

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