試析東亞經濟整合趨勢與台灣定位

黃兆仁

《台灣經濟論衡》 2卷12期 (2004/12) Pp. 31-50

並列摘要

The main theme of this study is to examine the mid- to long-term development of economic integration in East Asia and to explore possible economic roles for Taiwan therein. The methodologies adopted for the study include both qualitative and quantitative analyses as well as an economic simulation using the GTAP version 5.4 data base. In the first place, countries in East Asia have displayed strong economic complementary, a common emphasis on export-oriented industrial development policies, and a high degree of intra-regional economic dependency. These factors indicate that market economic forces are the main driving-force behind regional economic integration. And economic interaction among the members of the region is being deepened and expanded by their pursuit of bilateral and multilateral economic cooperation agreements with one another. In the second place, China has been increasing its economic influence in East Asia through the expansion of its economic power and the formation of politico-economic pacts with other members of the region, as exemplified by the progress of the ASEAN+China and ASEAN+3 arrangements. At the same time, China's growing influence in regional economic integration has prompted some members of the region to step up their efforts to negotiate and sign bilateral and multilateral economic cooperation agreements to make themselves better able to meet various challenges at both the regional and global levels. In the case of Taiwan, its room for engaging in international activities has been severely curtailed by political pressure from China, confronting it with the threat of being marginalized as the process of regional integration advances. To prevent this, it must strive to forge its own economic cooperation agreements with other East Asian countries on the basis of its industrial competitiveness and the close economic and trade partnerships that it has built up over time within the region.