信用卡與金融危機關係之研究

A Study on Credit and financial crisis

陳秋文

《台灣經濟論衡》 6卷6期 (2008/06) Pp. 35-67

摘要

近年來在新興市場與已開發國家中，以信用卡作為支付的工具已相當普及，但信用卡普及使用將造成經濟體系信用過度擴張，對整體經濟產生重大衝擊，甚至使經濟體系發生金融危機。因此，本文係探討在開放經濟體系下，信用卡普及使用是否會造成引爆金融危機之因。本文試圖藉由一個簡單的小型開放經濟體系模型，以探討信用卡普及使用與金融危機間的關係。在本文中發現經濟體系若在一般（低外債）情況時，信用卡的普及使用是有利於產出的提升與經濟的繁榮；但經濟體系若有高外債的情況時，信用卡的普及使用所引起的本國貨幣貶值（外幣升值）現象，將對經濟體系的產出有負面效應，甚至使經濟體系引爆金融危機。至於，IMF所提：欲以緊縮貨幣改善危機的惡化，或以加強金融監理防範危機之發生，本文認為；在開放經濟體系，其政策效果並不明確的。政府當局應將民眾在資產市場上對本國經濟體系未來繁榮與否的預期列入政策的考量中，方較能達成期待的政策效果。

關鍵字

信用卡 ； 金融危機 ； 外債 ； 緊縮貨幣 ； 金融監理

並列摘要

In the last decade, the most popular transaction method is credit card payment, (do the issuances of credit card trigger the financial crisis?) the issuances of credit card have induced major instability in financial crisis both in developed and emerging market. This paper will attempt to examine the relationship between the issuance of credit card and financial crisis in an open economy, we build a simple model to provide the link between the issuances of credit card and financial crisis. We find that an increase of the issuance of credit card will raise the output level in normal economic situation, that is, to increase the issuance of credit card is beneficial for economic growth. On the other hand, if the firms have the foreign currency debt burden, an increase in the issuance of credit card will decline the output level and make the currency depreciation, the issuance of credit card will lead to a financial crisis easily. We also show that the effect of improvement of financial crisis by monetary tightening or strengthening the financial supervision recommended by IMF is ambiguous in the open economy.

並列關鍵字

credit card ； financial crisis ； foreign currency debt ； monetary tightening ； financial supervision