北韓軍武威脅下的東北亞安全情勢

A Research of Northeast Asian Security Situation under North Korea's Military Threat

錢尹鑫(Chien, Yin-Hsin)

《展望與探索月刊》 16卷10期 (2018/10) Pp. 71-93

摘要

自金正恩接任北韓領導人之後，一改以往附和依賴的對外交往模式，隨之而來的是更為激進的軍武威脅，連帶地導致東北亞地緣政治的急遽變化，而此變化牽涉到的不僅是各國的戰略利益，更是各國對於北韓工具型地位的認知與操作。北韓藉由軍武威脅逐漸突破傳統的限制框架，成為東北亞地緣戰略的博弈者，同時也顯示出金正恩亟欲改變東北亞權力平衡與企圖重構地緣政治板塊的積極心態，進而導引東北亞區域的動態平衡與地緣戰略向己傾斜。對於北韓的軍武威脅，各國基於本身的戰略利益皆有不同的解讀與應處，而各國的應處策略從軍事外溢到其他領域，將成為多方相互牽制的籌碼，而北韓將持續利用各國國家安全需求與地緣戰略的矛盾，建構本身的戰略利益與政治迴旋空間。

關鍵字

北韓 ； 避險戰略 ； 權力動態 ； 東北亞

並列摘要

Since Kim Jong Un became the supreme leader of North Korea, he has changed the pattern of diplomatic dependence. The ensuing agitated military threat of North Korea has made a rapid geopolitical change in Northeast Asia. This change has been related to strategic interests of countries around, and their cognition and practices considering North Korea as a tool. Through military threats North Korea gradually broke the traditional frame and has become a geostrategic player in Northeast Asia. It also shows that Kim Jung Un is eager to change the power balance of Northeast Asia and his aggressive mindset to reconstruct the geopolitical situation in the region. Furthermore, Kim has tried to lead the regional dynamic balance and geopolitical strategy to tilt to his side. All countries have their own interpretation and method to counter North Korea's military threat considering their own strategic interests. Their countermeasures are not limited to military fields, which will become the gambling chips affecting all the players in the parleys. North Korea will continually utilize this geostrategic contradiction to acquire its own benefits and increase the space to survive.

並列關鍵字

North Korea ； Hedging Strategy ； Dynamics of Power ； Northeast Asia