East Asia's Newly Emerging International Order? Ascendant China and Japan

竹內俊隆(TAKEUCHI Toshitaka)

《展望與探索月刊》 18卷11期 (2020/11) Pp. 62-102

摘要

It is quite often claimed nowadays that China is a revisionist power in pursuit of a new international order to replace the current liberal international one dominated by the US. There is no denying that China's economic rise has been remarkable with its concomitant military build-up. With this ascendant China in mind, this paper looks into the overall international order in East Asia and considers what might lie ahead. First, it is going to review the current debate on whether China is a revisionist or reformist power, which will form the foundation of this paper. Then, it will explain the extant security structure which underpins the overall situation in East Asia, the Hub and Spokes system. In this context, it will also take a look at East Asia's multi-lateral institutions and forums as well, in which the ARF is the most crucial. The implications to East Asia of the ascendant China, which is expected to continue for a generation or so, will be analyzed after that. In that vein, Japan's long-term trade strategy that has China's increasing clout in mind will be discussed as it has some bearing on the idea of ＂responsible stakeholder＂ in the liberal trade order. China being the focal point, its perspectives and aspirations such as the G-2, the ＂Belt and Road Initiative＂ proposal and ＂Chinese Dream＂ will be discussed. Finally, the policy options available to East Asian countries like Japan will be briefly outlined against this backdrop.