中國大陸城鎮化與區域經濟發展關係的實證分析

An Empirical Analysis of Urbanization and Regional Economic Development in Mainland China

高長(Kao, Charng) ； 石代維(Shih, Tai-Wei)

《展望與探索月刊》 19卷12期 (2021/12) Pp. 34-57

摘要

本文旨在探討中國大陸城鎮化與區域經濟發展的關係。在歐美社會，城市發展與工業化並行不悖、相互促進，但大陸則長期實行控制的政策，直到改革開放之後才逐步鬆綁農村人口移入城市。進入21世紀，城鎮化成為國家發展戰略的重點之一，大陸政府以行政手段積極建設城市群，冀望城鎮化成為區域經濟成長引擎。本文利用省級相關資料，量化研究城鎮化與大陸區域經濟發展的關聯性。結果發現，兩者具有顯著的正向關係，且反映制度變革的市場化程度，也是影響大陸區域經濟發展的重要因素。進一步觀察1996－2017年期間，城鎮化率變動率對大陸區域經濟發展的影響，結果發現兩者具有正向關係，但未達到統計顯著性，而市場化程度仍是重要的解釋變數。這意味著改革開放以後，促使大陸經濟快速發展的動力，制度變革與行政介入的貢獻各有千秋，但制度變革似乎更勝一籌。

關鍵字

城鎮化 ； 市場化 ； 經濟成長 ； 中國大陸區域發展

並列摘要

This article aims to explore the impact of urbanization on regional economic development in Mainland China. In western countries, urbanization and industrialization promote each other. In Mainland China, the regulations restricting the movement of rural citizens into cities were not lifted until the reform finished. In the 21st century, urbanization has become one of the priorities of the national development strategy. The government actively uses administrative means to build urban clusters, making urbanization an engine for regional economic growth. This article uses data from various provinces to study the impact of urbanization on economic development. It turns out that there is a significant positive relationship. The degree of marketization is also an important factor affecting the economic development of China. In the period of 1996-2017, the impact of urbanization on China's regional economic growth was positive, but it did not reach statistical significance. Marketization is still an important explanatory variable. This implies that marketization is more dynamic than urbanization as the driving force for the rapid development of China's economy.

並列關鍵字

Urbanization ； Marketization ； Economic Growth ； Regional Development