The Theoretical Logic and Practical Path of the Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on the Leverage Ratio of Real Estate Enterprises

Tianyu Xie ； Xudong Wu ； Nina Tan

《Frontiers in Economics and Management》 4卷5期 (2023/05) Pp. 85-97

https://doi.org/10.6981/FEM.202305_4(5).0012

摘要

This paper examines the impact of policy changes on the leverage of real estate companies from the perspective of economic policy uncertainty, taking the real estate industry, a highly leveraged industry, as the research object. Based on the publicly disclosed earnings data of 10 A‐share representative real estate companies of different sizes, this paper uses the CCA model to obtain the default distance as an evaluation indicator to measure the systematic credit risk. The empirical results show that: (1) the default distance of real estate companies has obvious characteristics of migration change over time, and the systematic credit risk of large real estate companies is generally higher than the systematic credit risk of small real estate companies. (2) The real estate industry is influenced by national policies, and since 2018, the introduction of severe real estate purchase restrictions and control policies has led to a decline in real estate market demand, a rise in the systematic credit risk of real estate companies, and the development of the traditional real estate industry facing difficulties. after 2020, the systematic credit risk of the real estate industry has risen due to the impact of the new crown epidemic, and after the new development pattern is proposed, under the influence of national policies and Under the dual influence of the market environment, the systematic credit risk of the real estate industry has shown a shocking trend, and the traditional real estate industry is facing the challenge of transformation and upgrading. The research in this paper has practical implications for clarifying the logic behind corporate leverage and the introduction of relevant "deleveraging" policies in a scientific manner.

關鍵字

CCA Model ； Real Estate Industry ； Economic Policy Uncertainty ； New Development Pattern

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