打擊數據與球隊勝率績效評估以日本職棒為例

棒球數據分析對於棒球職業運動發展與運動賽會極為重要，可幫助在選才選手與對戰時做為考量依據。研究目的：探討日本職棒打擊者在例行賽中，球員在國籍、守備位置、年齡對各項打擊數據差異分析、事後比較與球隊勝率績效。方法：本研究採用日本職業棒球NPB官方網站收集檢索2017-2022年球季打者打擊成績數據資料，並將太平洋聯盟與中央聯盟12支球隊為評估單位，第一階段使用單因子變異數分析與雪費事後比較作顯著差異分析。第二階段以皮爾森基差分析法將各項打擊數據與球隊得分勝率作相關分析。結果：31-35歲打擊者各項數據顯著大於19-25歲、各項打擊數據上以外野手高於內野手與捕手。得分與勝場相關係數為.680；得分與OPS相關係數為.719；勝場與OPS相關係數為.430，皆呈現正相關。結論：得分、勝場、打擊率、OPS這4項數據分析可知，打擊率跟球隊得分、勝場相關性不高，但OPS跟得分、勝場有很高相關性，故OPS越高則得分與勝場也越多。

關鍵字

運動賽會；數據分析；職業棒球

並列摘要

Baseball data analysis is extremely important for the development of professional baseball and sports tournaments, and it can be used as a basis for selection of players and matchups. Purpose: To investigate the differences in hitting data by nationality, position, age, and post hoc comparisons of Japanese professional baseball players in regular season games, and to examine the performance of the team in terms of winning percentage. Methods: In this study, we used the official website of Japan Professional Baseball (NPB) to collect and retrieve batting performance data for the 2017-2022 seasons, and the 12 teams in the Pacific and Central Leagues were evaluated as the evaluation units, and in the first stage, we used one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) and post-hoc comparisons with snow fees to analyze the significant differences. In the second stage, Pearson's Basis Analysis of Variance was used to correlate the batting data with the team's winning percentage. Results: Batters aged 31-35 years old were significantly higher than those aged 19-25 years old, and outfielders were higher than infielders and catchers in all batting categories. The correlation coefficients between runs and wins were .680, runs and OPS were .719, and wins and OPS were .430, all of which were positively correlated. Conclusion: The analysis of the four data items: runs, wins, batting average, and OPS shows that batting average is not highly correlated with runs and wins, but OPS is highly correlated with runs and wins, so the higher the OPS is, the more runs and wins will be scored.