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從烏克蘭危機看國際權力競逐與虛假訊息效應

Theory and Practice of International Power Competition from the View of Ukraine Crisis, and the Effect and Influence of Disinformation

摘要


一場被稱為「二戰以後在歐洲最大規模的戰爭」正血腥地在進行當中,幾個月下來難民數已超過600萬(ODP, 2022),而戰事的膠着,正意味着長期化、失控的趨勢卻愈來愈明顯。然而,戰爭原因、決策認知、戰況實情、未來可能性等問題的形成、發展與評論,卻又在虛假訊息充斥的狀態下,造成社會認知的分歧、意識形態的撕裂,甚至道德概念的相互攻擊。值得注意的是,國際權力結構的變化也似乎在聯盟安排與權力競逐「範式」上,有着相當程度的轉變可能。一般民眾如何在如此紛亂訊息與概念之中,找到可以信賴的「自我認知」途徑,可能也是21世紀所需面臨的嚴肅課題。

並列摘要


The Ukraine war has been recognised as 'the biggest war in Europe since 1945', as the rest of the world continues to witness its gruesomeness. At present, the number of refugees has exceeded 6 million in merely two months. However, a stalemate between Ukraine and Russia suggests that the war may become perpetual. The longer it continues, the more likely it will become uncontrollable. Unfortunately, information regarding the cause and decision-making process that led to the war, the current situation and the outlook of the war is mostly false or unavailable. This lack of information causes differences in opinions, gaps in ideology and even mutual attacks on moral concepts. The possibility of changing the international power structure also seems to present a considerable degree of 'paradigm shift' under alliance arrangement and competition. For 'ordinary people', how to find a reliable way of 'building self-awareness' in such a world full of chaotic information and misconceptions may also be a serious issue that needs to be faced in the 21st century.

參考文獻


Fix, Liana & Kimmage, Michael. (2022), ” What If the War in Ukraine Spins Out of Control? How to Prepare for Unintended Escalation.” in Foreign Affairs, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukraine/2022-07-18/what-if-war-in-ukraine-spins-out-control?utm_medium=promo_email&utm_source=special_send&utm_campaign=election_&utm_content=20220719&utm_term=allspecial-send, Accessed date: 20 July 2022.
Friedman, Thomas L. (2022), “Free Advice for Putin: ‘Make Peace, You Fool’.” in The New York Times, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/13/opinion/putin-ukraine-war-strategy.html, Accessed date: 16 April 2022.
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