颱風預報下水庫最佳洩水量之決策分析推演

The Derivation of Decision-Analysis for the Optimal Reservoir Discharge Upon a Typhoon Warning

鄭昌奇(CHANG-CHI CHENG)

《台灣水利》 45卷2期 (1997/06) Pp. 59-63

摘要

水資源管理上，除了工程技術外，亦需考量社會經濟因素，為因應此複雜狀況，決策分析之應用益形重要。其中一個重大課題即在颱風預報下水庫最佳洩水量之決定，如何權衡洪災或供缺水問題，降低損失至最小。本文擬先簡介決策分析之演進，復在適度假設下將之應用於颱風預報下最佳水庫洩水量之決定，推演出一理論計算式。

關鍵字

決策分析 ； 水庫洩水 ； 颱風預報

並列摘要

Water resources management is becoming more complicated as social and econmic factors are involved in addition to engineering techniques. As a result, the application of decision-analysis is getting more important. One of the major subjects in water resources management is the determination of optimal reservoir discharge upon a typhoon warning, when the expected loss between flooding and water shortage is minimal. In this article, the background of decision-alaysis will first be introduced, then, under proper assumptions, it will be applied to derive the optimal reservoir discharge upon a typhoon warning.

並列關鍵字

Decision-analysis ； Reservoir discharge ； Typhoon warning