以模糊理論估算桃園市八德區不動産房價之研究

本研究主要是以模糊理論（Fuzzy）作為不動產估價理論工具，並建立一套合理、可信且快速的不動產估價方式，以符合現今市場的需求。透過問卷了解市場需求以建立不動產估價模型，並以實價登錄的交易價格為真價進行分析比較。期以應用模糊理論於不動產估價業務範疇，提供另一種新的思維，以提供消費者合理的購買資訊。研究中，利用模糊理論建立不動產估價模式，並依各項影響因素估算不動產價格，經過驗證後發現，實際成交價格較估算價格高，其主要原因在於桃園市八德區房價近年飆漲，使得購屋者心理存在預期漲價因素，擔心會日後交易價格會愈來愈高，願意增加購屋金額，使得買賣交易成交平均金額較估算值來得高。整體比較的均方根誤差（Root Mean Squared Error，RMSE）為±1.05（萬／坪）。

關鍵字

模糊理論；不動產估價；實價登錄

並列摘要

Fuzzy theory and its related methodology applied in this research are the main tools for price estimation of properties in order to create reasonable, credible and fast ways to meet the demands from current real estate markets. After establishment of the evaluation model we compare the prices with those of registered transactions and analyze their trends. It is anticipated that fuzzy-based theory can be utilized to the field of property evaluation and provide novel thoughts to consumers for reasonable purchases. In this study we developed a model for price evaluation of properties using fuzzy-based theory according to various factors. After verification we found that the actual transaction prices are higher than those from the model. It is indicated that the main reasons caused high prices in Bade Dist., Taoyuan City are psychological influences of nervous property buyers who are willing to pay much more than the average amounts of deals which the Root Mean Squared Error is ±1.05 (ten thousand/Ping).

並列關鍵字

fuzzy theory ； property pricing ； registered transactions

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