再生能源條例中用電大戶條款之環境、健康及經濟影響評估—可計算一般均衡模型的應用

Environmental, Health, and Economic Impact Assessments of Renewable Energy Legislations on Major Electricity Users-An Application of Computable General Equilibrium Models

李哲瑋(Che-Wei Li)

指導教授 ： 張靜貞

國立臺灣大學/生物資源暨農學院/農業經濟學研究所/碩士(2020年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU202004201

摘要

台灣於2016年提出「532能源政策」，以「非核家園，永續台灣」理念來達到核能除役以及穩定供電的效果，在2018年開始進行再生能源發展條例之檢討與修正，並於2019年通過用電大戶條款，希望透過規範用電大戶履行其建置或使用再生能源之義務，加速再生能源的發展，同時也達到政策與企業雙贏的效果。綠色和平東亞分部臺北辦公室曾於2019年發表了一份有關台灣電子製造業使用燃煤電力對空汙與健康之影響評估報告(綠色和平，2019)，報告中根據經濟部能源局的資料推估出若電子製造業能夠轉用再生能源，將可使得每年早逝人數減少14.8%(約100人)，隱含利用再生能源來取代高污染之煤炭發電，能對環境保育及健康均帶來正向影響。
面對國際減碳壓力，加上近年來民眾對於空氣污染的高度關切，台灣勢必要加速能源結構的調整；然而用電大戶履行再生能源義務的成本仍需要自行吸收，因此對廠商而言，將造成相當程度的衝擊，也不斷指出此條款有誘因與配套不足之問題，值得進行完整的評估。本研究主要目的為利用可計算一般均衡模型、主計總處產業關聯表的產業別用電成本以及經濟部能源局2018年所公佈之800瓩以上之用電資料等，評估如用電大戶或電子製造業履行用電大戶條款對整體經濟的影響以及對空汙改善與民眾健康的效益。評估結果顯示無論是電子製造業完全使用綠電(情境一)或者是800瓩以上之用電大戶使用10%綠電(情境二)的情況下，皆導致廠商成本提高與利潤減少，對於經濟雖有負面之衝擊，但低於空汙改善所帶來的正面健康效益，故加總後之淨效益仍為正面。因此，本研究建議政府可給予電子製造業與用電大戶適當之緩衝期，並提供獎勵配套措施幫助企業與國際逐漸接軌，使政策更加完善。

關鍵字

用電大戶條款 ； 可計算一般均衡模型 ； 減碳效益 ； 經濟影響評估 ； 健康效益評估

並列摘要

To promote the idea of nuclear-free homeland and sustainability, government in Taiwan proposed a 532 energy policy goal in 2016 to decommission nuclear power plants while guarantee a stable energy supply at the same time. To accelerate the energy transition process, amendment bills with major electricity user clauses were proposed in 2018 and 2019 to regulate large electricity users to install or fulfill their renewable obligations as a win-win solution for both government and businesses. A report by the East-Asian Office of Green Peace in Taipei released a report in 2019 the impact of electronic manufacturers’ transition from highly polluted coal–fired power into renewable energy on health. Their simulation results predicted a reduction of 14.8 percent premature death and implied positive health benefits will be generated by such a transition.
To meet the challenges of carbon reduction and public concerns on reducing air pollution, Taiwan need to speed up its transition path. However, the companies required to meet the renewable consumption goal has to fulfill their obligation at their own cost. A detailed evaluation is needed to resolve the problem on lack of incentives and supplementary measures. Thus, this study aims to use the computable general equilibrium model approach, input-output table and the electricity consumption data released by the government to access the impact of implementing major electricity user clauses drafted by Bureau of Energy on the economy, environment and health outcome. The simulation results of two scenarios suggest that either all electronic manufacturers using green energy (scenario 1) or major electricity users fulfilling 10 percent green energy obligations (scenario 2) will increase energy costs for the manufacturing sector and bring negative impact on the economy. However, the positive impact on the CO2 emission reduction and health will overcome the negative impact and result in a positive overall benefit to the society. Therefore, when the government drafts major electricity user clauses, it is helpful to provide some incentives to the major electricity users, such as a longer buffer period to fulfill their obligations, or to provide a supporting measure to help them fulfill the requirement to meet the international standards.

並列關鍵字

major electricity user clauses ； Computable General Equilibrium Models ； Carbon reduction benefit ； Economic impact assessment ； Healthy benefit assessment

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