應用環境健康整合效益模型評估再生能源與節能之污染減量效益

Co-Benefits Analysis of the Renewable Energy and Energy Saving Mechanism Benefits Using an Environmental and Health Co-benefits Model

陳鵬宇(Peng-Yu Chen)

指導教授 ： 曾昭衡

國立臺北科技大學/工程學院/環境工程與管理研究所/碩士(2012年)

摘要

本研究為探討再生能源可產生之最大環境效益，分析生質能車輛與其他環保車輛之成本與效益。本研究建立系統動態模式STELLA架構各再生能源替代化石燃料與節電措施之溫室氣體與空氣污染物減量之系統動力模式，並以「環境健康整合效益評估模型」量化各再生能源發電空氣污染物及溫室氣體減量下之經濟及健康效益。
生質柴油及酒精汽油之成本效益分析部分，得知電動汽車為效益最高者，為314,517元/年*輛（2010年新台幣），其次依序B5為308,670元/年*輛)、B2為308,478元/年*輛、新柴油引擎為308,351元/年*輛、油電混合車為270,188元/年*輛、液化石油車為246,572元/年*輛、E10為61,057元/年*輛，最低為E3為43,239元/年*輛。B5柴油引擎車成本效益比為55.32，為各環保車種中最高，而電動汽車雖淨效益最高，但其車價最高，益本比僅5.04，液化石油車成本為負值，原因為成本節省金額較汽油車投資成本高。各再生能源之成本效益分析部分，離岸風力為淨效益最高者，為2,480,135元/百萬度，其次依序為陸上風電為2,384,293元/百萬度、水電為2,362,680元/百萬度、地熱為2,274,131元/百萬度、太陽能為1,922,032元/百萬度、生質能為1,466,347元/百萬度及廢棄物為1,402,133元/百萬度。
本研究以系統動態學軟體STELLA模擬我國能源部門之二大措施：再生能源與節電，並探討節電整合（系統動態學）後與未整合（二者單純相加）之減量差異，當各節電措施未整合執行時，於2010至2030年減量較整合執行下差異約80%。再生能源與節電措施整合共同減量，至2030年空氣污染物PM10、SOX、NOX、CO及NMHC總減量分別為77,739、777,864、1,506,427、291,735及62,774公噸；GHG減量為1,022,351千公噸。再生能源與節電措施以系統動態整合與未整合減量分析之益本比分別為6.93與2.94，表示系統動態整合與否非常重要，其差異原因在於電費受再生能源發展影響後提昇節電量，又再進一步影響發電成本結構。

關鍵字

空氣污染物 ； 溫室氣體 ； 環保車輛 ； 再生能源 ； 系統動態模式 ； 成本效益分析

並列摘要

This study is based on the renewable energy, assuming which will substitute coal-fired power generation, development policy in Taiwan. The monetary costs and the human health benefits from the air pollutants and greenhouse gas reduction are assessed in this study. To determine the maximum environmental benefits of renewable energy, the costs and benefits of biomass energy vehicles and other eco-friendly cars are also assessed. The " Environment and Health Co-benefits Model" is developed and used in evaluating the economic and health benefits, The Renewable Energy Dynamic Model developed by STELLA is used to assess the trend of development in renewable energy and energy saving.
The results show that the benefit of NT$314,517/year*vehicle from the substitution of electric cars for conventional gasoline ones, were larger than other types of eco-friendly cars, which are NT$308,670, 308,478, 308,351, 270,188, 246,572, 61,057, and 43,239per year per vehicle for the B5 bio diesel engine, B2 bio diesel engine, new diesel engine, hybrid, liquefied petroleum, E10 bio ethanol, E3 bio ethanol, respectively. The cost-benefit ratio for the substitution of B5 vehicles for conventional gasoline ones was 55.32and was the highest. the benefit of electric vehicles is the highest, but the cost is also the highest, cost-benefit ratio was only 5.04. The cost of LPG vehicles is negative, because the price and other costs is lower than gasoline vehicle. Cost-benefit analysis of renewable energy show that the benefit of NT$2,480,135/MWh from the substitution of wind-off generation for coal-fired power generation, were larger than other types of renewable energy, which are NT$2,384,293, 2,362,680, 2,274,131, 1,466,347, 1,402,133 per MWh for wind-on, hydro, geothermal, solar, bio, RDF, respectively.
This study used STELLA simulating of renewable energy and save energy, investigating the reduction difference between independent and dependent, 2010 to 2030 the difference is about 80%. Renewable energy and save energy joint implementation to 2030, the air pollutants PM10, SOX, NOX, CO and NMHC will be reduced 77,739, 777,864, 1,506,427, 291,735 and 62,774 tons total, and GHG will be reduced 1,022,351 thousand tons total. The cost-benefit ratio of independent and dependent is 2.93and 6.94.

並列關鍵字

Air pollutants ； Greenhouse gas ； Eco-friendly car ； Renewable Energy ； System dynamics ； Cost-Benefit Analysis

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