台灣電子產品出口函數之實證分析

The Empirical Analysis of Electronic Product Export in Taiwan

許弘達(Hong-Ta Hsu)

指導教授 ： 謝德宗

國立臺灣大學/社會科學院/經濟學研究所/碩士(2013年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2013.00162

摘要

台灣出口占總產出比重高，2012年已占GDP六成，而出口內容以電子加工或代工為主，使電子產品出口對我國GDP具顯著影響力。影響出口因素眾多，其中以外國商品需求、外國景氣、匯率與生產成本為主要因素，台灣天然資源不足，生產電子產品之原物料多為進口取得，故可將電子產品進口作為成本估算考量，觀察電子產品進口與出口間關係。
本文以電子產品進出口、匯率、出口物價指數、躉售物價指數與外國景氣綜合領先指標為變數，觀察2001年一月至2013年1月間我國電子產品出口情形。首先以單根檢定確認各變數經一階差分後為定態數列，再建立VAR模型觀察出口與各變數落後期之相關性，藉由衝擊反應函數了解外生衝擊對出口的影響，並使用Granger因果關係檢定變數間回饋關係，最後將VAR模型中與當期出口具顯著之變數作為多元迴歸模型解釋變數，建立多元迴歸模型探討影響台灣電子產品出口的因素與影響力。研究結果顯示匯率外生衝擊對出口影響時間最長，且短期新台幣貶值對出口為重要有利因素。落後期進口與出口具同向關係，卻也受過去匯率影響，因此匯率貶值效果將造成下一季電子產品出口衰退。而歐美地區景氣可能因台灣、中國大陸與歐美地區三角貿易關係，對本國出口影響力並不顯著，唯其外生衝擊將對我國電子產品出口產生結構性改變。

關鍵字

電子產品 ； 出口 ； 進口 ； 匯率 ； 躉售物價指數 ； 出口物價指數 ； 景氣綜合領先指標

並列摘要

Export plays the most important role of the total output in Taiwan. Technology companies and electronic manufacturers are weighted significantly for Taiwan’s GDP. There are several factors affecting our export; including but not limited to the foreign demand, international business cycles, exchange rate, production cost. Due to the lack of natural resources in Taiwan, basically most of them were imported from overseas. Hence, we are able to observe the relationship between the import and export electronics by setting the import as the factor cost.
The following variables used in this thesis were to calculate the status of electronic products export from January 2001 to January 2013: the import and export of electronic products, exchange rate, the price index of export, the wholesale price index, and the composite leading indicators of foreign countries. First, we have to make sure all variables are stationary after the first order difference, then construct the VAR model to observe the correlation between export and the lag terms of other variables, using the impulse response function to realize the affect to export, from an unpredictable change in exogenous factors, and finally test the causality between two variables by the Granger causality test. At the end, we use the variables which have significant coefficient in VAR model as the explanatory variables, constructing the multiple regression model to analysis what is going to have an influence on electronic products export in Taiwan, and how powerful that particular influence is.
The conclusion of this research shows that the exchange rate will result the longest impact period on export, and the short-run depreciation in New Taiwan Dollar will be the most important benefit for export. The lag term of import, which is also affected by exchange rate, has a positive correlation with export. Last but not least, because of the triangular trading between Taiwan, China and the area of Europe and America, the business cycle of America or European doesn’t have significant effect on export in Taiwan, but the impulse which is caused by any one of them will give the structural changes to electronic products export in Taiwan.

並列關鍵字

electronic product ； export ； import ； exchange rate ； wholesale price index ； price index of export ； composite leading indicators

參考文獻

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