中國改革開放後糧食安全與貿易自由化之關係與演變--全球糧食安全指標之應用分析

The Relation between Trade Liberalization and Food Security over 40 Years of Reform and Opening up in China: An Application of Global Food Security Index

楊雅婷(Ya-Ting Yang)

指導教授 ： 張靜貞

國立臺灣大學/生物資源暨農學院/農業經濟學研究所/碩士(2019年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU201902513

摘要

長期以來，中國政府皆以糧食自給率作為衡量糧食安全之工具，然隨著國際農產品貿易日趨熱絡，各國糧食自給比率逐漸下降，糧食自給率已非衡量糧食安全之主流。本研究利用經濟學人信息社(Economist Intelligence Unit, EIU)所建構的全球糧食安全指標（Global Food Security Index，GFSI），考慮負擔能力、供應能力、品質與安全三個次指標，作為衡量中國改革四十年以來糧食安全變化趨勢之工具，並比較採用不同標準化與權重之差異，包括原本EIU公布的標準化與權重、Z分數標準化、以及多層級資料包絡分析法，以確保此指標之穩健性。
計算結果顯示中國三項GFSI指標四十年來皆呈正向成長趨勢，總指標漲幅達2-3倍。比較GFSI三個次指標的分數與其趨勢變化可發現，三個次指標的重要性由高到低依序為供應能力、品質與安全、負擔能力，而隨著時間的演進，供應能力之重要程度下降，而品質與安全的分數自1990年代開始高於供應能力，連帶提升該次指標之重要程度，而供應能力與負擔能力居第二與第三。值得注意的是成長最多的為負擔能力，漲幅約為8倍；其次是品質與安全，漲幅約為2倍；再者，中國農業制度的改革與科技進步帶動生產效率，故供應能力亦成長約57個百分點。
為分析貿易自由化與糧食安全的關係，本研究透過Spearman等級相關分析計算GFSI與糧食自給率、貿易自由度、農產品關稅、農業貿易依存度的相關係數，發現糧食自給率與貿易自由化呈顯著負相關，而GFSI與貿易自由度呈顯著正相關，進一步證實中國的糧食安全與貿易自由化存在高度之正相關性。

關鍵字

中國糧食安全 ； 糧食自給率 ； 全球糧食安全指標 ； 多層級資料包絡分析法 ； 貿易自由化

並列摘要

Food self-sufficiency rate has been the major food security measurement tool in China for a very long time period. This study uses the Global Food Security Index (GFSI) constructed by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) which can be divided into three sub-indexes, namely affordability, availability, and quality and safety. To ensure the robustness of the GFSI, we use different standardization and weighting methods including the Z-score standardization and the weights calculated by the hierarchical data envelopment analysis (H-DEA) and compare with the results from the original EIU's standardization and weights.
The results show that the GFSI of China has increased continuously during the past 40 years and the total score has increased by 2-3 times. Furthermore, we find that in the early stage of the reform, the score of food affordability sub-index is the highest and the most important one among the three sub-indexes. Later, the importance of food availability has declined, while quality and safety sub-index has better scores over time. Nevertheless, the affordability is the fastest growing sub-index and its score has increased about 8 times since the reform. With the technological progress in China’s agricultural system, food quality and safety sub-index has also increased about 2 times while availability has increased 57 percentage points.
Furthermore, in order to analyze the relationship among trade liberalization and food security, we use the Spearman rank correlation method to calculate the correlation coefficients of food self-sufficiency rate, trade freedom index, agricultural product tariff and trade dependence. We find that China’s food self-sufficiency rate is significantly and negatively correlated with trade liberalization, while GFSI was significantly and positively correlated with trade liberalization. Therefore, we conclude that there is a positive correlation between food security and trade liberalization in China.

並列關鍵字

Food Self-Sufficiency Rate ； Global Food Security Index ； Hierarchical Data Envelopment Analysis ； Trade Liberalization

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