台灣景氣循環研究

The business cycles of Taiwan

黃雍漢(Yeong-haan Huang)

指導教授 ： 梁國源

國立臺灣大學/社會科學院/經濟學研究所/碩士(2009年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2009.00224

摘要

景氣循環是現實經濟當中的一股重要力量。然而，對於景氣循環的關注大多集中在短週期的存貨循環，而其他的中長週期循環所得到的關注與它們對經濟的影響力相比卻相當短少。因此，本研究使用應用台灣資料與頻譜分析，說明除了經建會認定的3至5年的短循環之外，7至11年的中循環以及更長的循環也同時存在，應受更多重視。決策者尤其應當在形成反景氣政策時加強對於中長週期循環的理解並加入考量。政治人物可以藉由對於中長週期循環的研究搭配上對短週期循環既有的知識來了解’景氣循環的下行週期的深度以及長度，以便在應對經濟衰退時更能以有限的資源做出更具效益的政策。

關鍵字

Kitchin循環 ； Juglar循環 ； 頻譜分析 ； 景氣循環 ； 交互作用

並列摘要

The business cycle is an important force in the economy. However, the attention on it is mostly on the short-term inventory cycle, while the other cycles receive way fewer notice than it should for the influence it has on the economy. Therefore, this thesis attempts to illustrate that middle cycles of 7-11 years and even longer cycles exist in addition to the commonly acknowledged 3-5 year short run cycles identified by the CEPD of Taiwan and deserves enhanced consideration using Taiwanese data and spectral analysis, Decision makers should put the higher order cycles into exceptional consideration specially when forming countercyclical policies. Politicians can have a better understanding of the depth and scope of economic downturns through the studies of middle and long waves in addition to the short cycles, and thus optimize the choice and strength of policies implemented, especially with limited resources.

並列關鍵字

Kitchin Cycles ； Juglar Cycles ； Spectral Analysis ； Business Cycles ； Interplay of Cycles

參考文獻

Abramnovitz, M, (1956). ‘Resources and output trends in the United States since 1870’, Thesiss and Proceedings, American Economic Review, 46, 5-23.

Abramnovitz, M,(1964). Evidences of Long Swings in Aggregate Construction Since the Civil War (NBER, Columbia University press)

Bloomfield, P. (1976). Fourier Analysis of Time Series: An Introduction (Wiley)

Burns, A.F. (1934). Production Trends in the Un, 4ited States Since 1870 (National Bureau of Economic Research)

Chatfield, C. (1989) The analysis of time series, fourth edition (Chapman & Hall)