原產地規則與貿易效果－引力模型在東亞地區紡織業之應用

近十幾年來，簽署自由貿易協定的風潮在東亞地區尤其盛行，台灣也將簽署FTA視為發展經濟的重要手段之一。但在簽署自由貿易協定之時，原本被用來辨別商品是否適用優惠稅率的原產地規則，在過於嚴格的情況下，反而會阻礙貿易的發展，因此本研究透過Tinbergen (1962) 和Poyhonen (1962) 所建構之引力模型，除了標準引力模型的變數之外，將 Estevadeordal (2000) 所發展之原產地規則限制指數，以及Estevadeordal and Suominen (2003) 所發展之原產地規則促進指數，納入引力模型。另一方面，亞洲地區是全球紡織業出口比例最高的地區，台灣更是第六大紡織品出口國，同時也是台灣第四大貿易順差產業，因此本研究聚焦在紡織業之中，分析中國、南韓、日本、新加坡、菲律賓以及泰國等六個國家，在1995-2011年期間的紡織品貿易資料，觀察原產地規則對於雙邊貿易所產生的影響。本研究的實證結果發現：兩國GDP、海外直接投資、先進國家對貿易有正向的影響；距離、殖民關係、原產地規則限制指數、2009年和2011年兩個時間變數對貿易有負向的影響；東協自由貿易區以及原產地規則促進指數的對貿易的影響則並不顯著。

關鍵字

自由貿易協定；紡織業；引力模型；原產地規則；原產地規則限制指數；促進指數

並列摘要

In the past few decades, the development of free trade agreements in East Asia has been thriving. Taiwan government also considered the free trade agreement as an important tool to create economy momentum. In a free trade agreement, the rules of origin is crucial to distinguish whether the product can be traded under the preferential tariff. If the rules of origin were set too strictly and the free trade may be injured. So this study applies the gravity model proposed by Tinbergen (1962) and Poyhonen (1962), with the restrictiveness of rules of origin index and facility index, which were constructed by Estevadeordal (2000) and Estevadeordal and Suominen (2003). On the other hand, Asia has the highest proportion of exports of textiles in the world. In Taiwan, the textile industry is the sixth largest export in the world, and also the fourth largest trade surplus industry in Taiwan. Therefore, this study focuses on textiles industry of six countries including China, Korea, Japan, Singapore, Philippines, and Thailand in East Asia between 1995-2011. By the data, we can observe the impact of rules of origin on bilateral trade. The results of this study are as follows: First, the variables of gross domestic product, foreign direct investment, and advance countries have significant positive influence on the export flow. On the contrary, the variables of distance, colonial relationship, the dummy variable 2009, 2011 and the restrictiveness of rules of origin index have significant negative influence on the export flow. Other factors as ASEAN, and facility index have no influence on the export flow.

並列關鍵字

free trade agreements ； textiles industry ； gravity model ； rules of origin ； the restrictiveness of rules of origin index ； facility index

參考文獻

許介麟，2006，「日本殖民統治台灣與朝鮮的比較(二)」，海峽評論，2006年2月號

蔡孟佳，2011，「從經濟效果論優惠性原產地規則之適法性及其未來發展」，歐美研究，第四十二卷，第二期，頁281-337

Augier, P., M. Gasiorek and C. Lai-Tong (2003).,“The Impact of Rules of Origin on Trade Flows,” Mimeo.

Bergstrand, J. (1989). “The Generalized Gravity Equation, Monopolistic Competition, and the Factor-Proportions Theory in International Trade,” The Review of Economics and Statistics, 71, 143-153.

Brenton, P. and M. Manchin ,(2002). “Making EU Trade Agreements Work: The Role of Rules of Origin,” Working Document No. 183. Brussels: Center

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原產地規則與貿易效果－引力模型在東亞地區紡織業之應用

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