臺灣減碳策略路徑圖規劃之研究

隨著溫室氣體排放量的議題關注度上升，其中以二氧化碳最受國際上討論。各國在通過巴黎協定後，陸續設立國家自主減碳時程，以達成巴黎協定設定2100年全球升溫控制在1.5℃目標。台灣雖然不是締約國，但為盡全球一份心力，制訂溫室氣體減量管理法等條文，明文設定2050年排放量較2005年排放水準減少50%之目標。在全球氣候政策規劃上，針對溫室氣體排放路徑的規劃，藉由未來情境的方式進行評估與預測。情境推估的基礎來自於對未來能源耗用、氣候政策、人口成長、經濟發展不同面向的設定，並透過複雜計算模擬出未來的溫室氣體排放與增溫情況等路徑。基於不同的氣候政策目標，便會產生不同類型的模擬情境，情境推估研究讓各國在規劃減碳路徑時，可針對不同的政策目標與情境，提出相對應的策略作為政策工具。在眾多經濟誘因中，碳稅是一種減少碳排放之重要經濟手段，透過徵收碳稅以實現減少碳排放之目的。單純課徵碳稅對於經濟會造成負面影響，而搭配稅收回饋機制將獲得改善。全球二氧化碳排放量與能源息息相關，各能源政策對於減碳貢獻不盡相同，煤炭、核能、再生能源等是減碳過程不可忽視的議題。另外，全球部分國家對於電動車的發展處於萌發階段，電動車具有強大的投資潛力。各國政府陸續訂定相關推動電動車的策略與相關計畫，來降低溫室氣體與空氣污染物的排放，同時促進電動車的發展。本研究期望透過碳稅政策、能源政策與電動車政策搭配總體計量模型模擬，以減緩二氧化碳排放量，並達成台灣減碳目標。根據研究數據顯示，高碳稅、核能技術發展和不發展燃煤技術對於減碳有實質的影響，其三者所構成的情境組合於2050年較2005年減碳幅度最大為51.63%。除了減碳效果之外，能源結構與總體經濟影響受到各策略加成之後也有所影響。藉由個別策略減碳效果、經濟變化等因素，依不同願景目標繪製政策藍圖。為了建構有效的減碳策略規劃，不同的政策藍圖其策略施行時間與前後次序將會有所差異。整體而言，本研究結果顯示，在不同情境、不同年份下各策略減碳速度與減碳持續時間會有效果上的變動，並非實施策略至2050年皆可達標，需要評估相關政策的有效性，以利在規劃政策上具有更多資訊以作為參考依據。

關鍵字

策略路徑圖；碳稅；能源政策； E3ME模型；環境衝擊評估

並列摘要

As the issue of greenhouse gas emissions has increased in the world, among them, carbon dioxide is the most discussed internationally. After the adoption of the Paris Agreement, various countries have successively set up nationally independent carbon reduction schedules to reach the Paris Agreement and set a target of controlling global warming at 1.5°C in 2100. Although Taiwan is not a contracting state, in order to do its part in the world, it has formulated the Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Management Act and other provisions, which expressly set a target of 50% reduction in emissions in 2050 compared with 2005 levels. In the planning of global climate policy, the planning of greenhouse gas emission paths is evaluated and predicted by means of future scenarios. The basis for scenario estimation comes from setting different aspects of future energy consumption, climate policy, population growth, and economic development, and simulating future paths of greenhouse gas emissions and warming through complex calculations. Based on unique climate policy objectives, different types of simulated scenarios will be generated. Scenario estimation studies allow countries to propose corresponding strategies as policy tools for diverse policy objectives and scenarios when planning carbon reduction pathways. Among many economic incentives, the carbon tax is an important economical means to reduce carbon emissions. The carbon tax is levied to reduce carbon emissions. Simply levying a carbon tax will have a negative effect on the economy, and matching the tax feedback mechanism will be improved. Global carbon dioxide emissions are closely linked to energy. Numerous energy policies have different contributions to carbon reduction. Coal, nuclear energy, and renewable energy is issues that cannot be ignored in the carbon reduction process. In addition, some countries around the world are in the embryonic stage in the development of electric vehicles, and electric vehicles have strong investment potential. Governments of various countries have successively formulated strategies and plans related to the promotion of electric vehicles to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases and air pollutants and promote the development of electric vehicles. This study hopes to use carbon tax policy, energy policy and electric vehicle policy combined with macro econometric model (E3ME) simulation to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and achieve Taiwan's carbon reduction goals. According to research data, high-carbon taxes, the development of nuclear energy technology and the non-development of coal-fired technologies have a substantial influence on carbon reduction. The combination of the three scenarios constitutes a maximum carbon reduction of 51.63% in 2050 compared with 2005. In addition to the carbon reduction effect, the energy structure and the overall economic impact have also been affected by the addition of various strategies. Through individual strategies such as carbon reduction effects, economic changes and other factors, the policy blueprint is drawn according to different vision and goals. In order to construct an effective carbon reduction strategy plan, different policy blueprints will have separate implementation time and order of strategies. Overall, the results of this study show that the carbon reduction rate and the duration of carbon reduction in each strategy will have an effect on different scenarios and different years. It is not the case that the implementation strategy will reach the standard by 2050, and the effectiveness of related policies needs to be evaluated. In order to obtain more information on planning policies as a reference.