- 學位論文
面對天然災害之社會韌性研究：以風險感知和展望理論觀點
Study of Societal Resilience against Natural Disasters: Perspectives of Risk Perception and Prospect Theory
摘要
近年來，由於天然災害對人們的生命財產安全造成嚴重威脅，災害管理成為都市和區域永續發展的關鍵議題之一。為了減少天然災害可能造成的損失，增強社會韌性以抵抗災害對社會的衝擊在災害管理領域中相當重要，在這方面，我們需要更深入了解人們如何看待災害，以便制定更好的災害管理策略、增強社會遇到災害後的恢復能力。 因此，本研究的目標為，探討人們面對天然災害威脅時的風險感知以及相關態度，其中，風險感知和態度為影響人類行為的基本要素，除此之外，本研究應用展望理論的觀點進一步探討人們如何感知小機率事件（風險），以及這種感知如何影響人們對災害風險的態度和行為。本研究針對的天然災害為地震，並透過敘述性偏好問卷線上調查人們對地震災害的風險感知，問卷當中使用支付意願的概念來量化人們對災害的風險態度，也就是人們願意支付多少錢來減少期望損失。此外，資訊的影響也是本研究關注的課題之一，因此，地震資訊亦被納入敘述性偏好問卷的設計中。 本研究應用序列機率模型和多界二分選擇模型來建立風險態度與個人屬性之間的關係，可以從模型的校估結果中得出對於人們風險感知有統計上顯著影響的因素。結果顯示，社會經濟地位越高、家庭成員越多、居住在台灣北部、居住於透天厝，住宅屋齡40年以上、熟悉網路相關資訊管道等因素，對風險感知有正向的影響；另一方面，居住於較矮的建築物和居住在建築物一樓等因素則對風險感知有負向的影響，此外，過去地震災損資訊有機會增加個人的風險感知。本研究也應用展望理論對人們的地震風險感知進行建模，以進一步捕捉減災相關的現實行為，從建模結果中可以發現，採用展望理論可以更完整地描述人們對於風險的態度，也更能夠顯示出風險偏好或風險厭惡等行為。 此研究結果可用於擬定更可靠的災害管理計畫並增加社會韌性，更加理解人們的風險感知和相關態度後，政府相關部門可以找出更有效率的策略來增強建成環境，包括：減災政策、災害溝通和災害教育，進而減少天然災害對社會造成的損害及傷害。
並列摘要
Natural Disasters have greatly threathened people’s lives and properties; hence disaster management has become a key issue for sustainable urban and regional development in recent years. To minimize possible damage caused by natural disasters, societal resilience to withstand disaster impact is critical for disaster management. In this regard, understanding how people perceive disasters is needed in order to formulate better disaster management strategies and enhance the resilience of the society. Accordingly, this research aims to study risk perception and relevant attitudes, which are the fundamental factors of human behavior upon the threat of disaster impact. The perspective of the prospect theory is adopted to further explore how the small probability (risk) may be perceived by people, and how the perception may affect the formation of their risk attitude toward disasters. A Stated-Preference (SP) survey is conducted to investigate people’s risk perception of a specific natural disaster: earthquakes. The concept of Willingness To Pay (WTP) is employed to quantify risk attitudes toward the disaster as the monetary value that people are willing to pay for risk reduction. In addition, the effect of information is also the concern of this research and incorporated in the design of the SP survey. An ordered probit model and a multiple-bounded dichotomous choice model are applied to construct the relationships between risk attitudes and personal attributes. The estimation results of the models identify the factors that have statistically significant effects on people’s risk perception. It is suggested that higher socioeconomic status, more family members, living in northern Taiwan, living in a detached house, the residence aged 40+, and being familiar with Internet, have a positive effect on risk perception; on the other hand, living in lower buildings and living on the first floor of the building can negatively affect risk perception. Moreover, presenting previous earthquake disaster damage data may increase individuals’ risk perception. Theoretical modelling of people’s perception toward earthquake risks is conducted based on the prospect theory to further capture the behavioral realism related to disaster preparedness. The implication suggests that people’s risk-seeking or riks-averse behavior can be better depicted by adopting the prospect theory. The results of this research can be used to develop a solid resilience-enhancement program. Based on the improved understanding of risk perception and relevant attitudes, the associated authorities may be able to determine more effective strategies to strengthen the built environment, including the implementation of risk reduction policies, disaster communication, and disaster education, thereby minimizing the damage and injuries caused by disasters.
參考文獻
延伸閱讀
- 李宗勳（2015）。災防的韌性治理與風險分擔之關聯及實證調查。中央警察大學警察行政管理學報，(11)，1-20。https://www.airitilibrary.com/Article/Detail?DocID=P20130527001-201505-201505190007-201505190007-1-20
- 陳俊男、廖茂宏、楊元春、程詩茹（2015）。應用災害脆弱度分析進行醫療院所風險管理。工業安全衛生，(313)，17-36。https://doi.org/10.6311/ISHM.2015.313.4
- 葉秀珍、陳昭榮（2007）。災害風險管理與其因應制度的探討。臺灣社會福利學刊，6(1)，51-92。https://doi.org/10.6265/TJSW.2007.6(1)2
- 黃志傑、柯海韻、王家英、劉定萍（2012）。因應氣候變遷與天然災害防疫應變經驗－以風災為例之探討。疫情報導，28(4)，58-64。https://doi.org/10.6524/EB.201202_28(4).0005
- 顏宏松（2007）。Research on The Perception of Community Disaster Prevention and Response Demand〔碩士論文，長榮大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://www.airitilibrary.com/Article/Detail?DocID=U0015-2408200715000200