公投綁大選？2018年公民投票與縣市長選舉之空間分析

臺灣在2018年11月24日舉辦九合一選舉和第7到16案的十個公民投票，是近年較為複雜之選舉，選後出現許多公民投票和縣市長選舉之爭論，在臺灣經驗下發現兩者同時舉行容易使公投進入選舉競爭的脈絡，成為影響選舉的重要議題。本研究以選舉地理學觀點探討十個公民投票案對縣市長選舉的影響差異，先檢視公投與國民黨獲票率的連動關係，再探討公投對此次國民黨選情的影響，隨後以空間異質檢視地理展現的差異性。研究發現在控制了鄉鎮的經社變數後，除了平權公投，各個公投與國民黨獲票率的連動性都偏高，再多控制縣市差異後，平權公投、東奧正名、愛家公投成為與縣市長選舉連動性較高之公投，而以核養綠、國民黨的能源與核食公投的連動程度則大幅下降，顯見縣市間的差異影響較大。在公投對國民黨獲票增加率的影響上，整體而言，平權公投、東奧正名顯著不利於國民黨選情，而愛家公投、以核養綠公投則對國民黨選情有些微幫助，國民黨的能源與核食公投對自己的選情沒有顯著影響。不同公投對縣市長選舉的影響仍有地區表現的差異，北部的影響程度較高，南部則稍弱。本研究以公投議題性質、政黨／政治人物行動來解釋公投的影響差異，從2018年的選舉經驗發現分歧性高的公投與國民黨連動程度較高，同時也對國民黨獲票成長影響顯著，此次由國民黨提出的能源與核食公投與獲票率連動程度低且對選情沒有顯著的幫助。

關鍵字

公民投票；縣市長選舉；同時選舉；空間分析；空間異質

並列摘要

Nine-in-one local elections and ten referendums in cases 7 to 16 were held in conjunction was more complicated elections on the 24th of November, 2018 in Taiwan. News and many public comments focused on the relation between referendums and the municipal election after the result of local elections. This study uses the perspective of electoral geography to examine the relationship between the referendums and the Kuomintang’s vote share, and the effect of the referendums on the growth rate of Kuomintang’s vote share. Finally, visualize the geographical differences of Taiwan’s towns. The result shows that the referendums are significantly associated with the vote share of Kuomintang except the LGBT referendums after controlling the town’s economic and social variables. Then, the LGBT referendums, the name rectification for the Tokyo Olympics referendum, anti-LGBT referendums, and the nuclear energy referendum are significantly associated with the vote share of Kuomintang after controlling county dummy variables, but the energy policy and anti-nuclear food referendums that Kuomintang proposed become not significantly linked with Kuomintang’s vote share. The county factors have a great effect on local elections. Secondly, the effect of the referendum on the growth rate of Kuomintang’s vote share shows that the anti-LGBT referendums and nuclear energy referendum increase the growth rate of Kuomintang’s vote share, but the name rectification for the Tokyo Olympics referendum and LGBT referendums are bad for the growth rate of Kuomintang’s vote share. However, the Kuomintang’s energy policy and anti-nuclear food referendums are nonsignificant. Finally, this study also finds that the effect of tens referendums on the municipal election has different regional performances. On the whole, the northern of Taiwan has a higher degree of influence, while the southern is slightly weaker. This study uses the characteristic of the referendum and the actions of political parties/politicians to explain the effect of the national referendums on the municipal election. From the 2018 election experience, the highly divergent referendums have a higher degree of linkage with the Kuomintang’s vote share, and also have a significant improvement on the growth rate of the Kuomintang’s vote share. However, the Kuomintang’s energy policy and anti-nuclear food referendums don’t significantly improve electoral Performance.

並列關鍵字

Referendums ； Municipal Election ； Concurrent Election ； Spatial Analysis ； Spatial Heterogeneity

參考文獻

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