探討莫迪經濟學對於印度未來總體經濟的影響

本文主要目的是在探討莫迪經濟學對於印度未來總體經濟的影響。因為印度在近幾年在國際社會中的討論度很高，專家學者都在分析印度未來的潛力有多大，而很多企業也想分析是否進軍印度，所能帶來的優缺點分別是甚麼? 因此本文透過實證自我回歸向量(VAR)模型分析變數對於印度國民生產總值(GDP)的影響，並判定印度總理莫迪的政策是帶來短期還是長期影響。在研究架構上，先對各種總體變數進行單根檢定，確保所有變數放入模型中的變數是不具有單根。確認無單根後再進行落後期選定並開始VAR模型分析。透過Granger因果檢定判定變數之間是否存在單向或雙向影響關係，最後再進行衝擊反映，觀察各個變數對於印度GDP到底帶來何種影響。最後本文得到以下結論：透過Granger檢定，發現以下變數存在單向關係 1. 外國對內投資(FDI) 國內生產總值變化率(DLGDP) 2. 家庭消費支出變化率(DLCNS) 固定資本形成總額變化率(DLINV) 3. 政府稅收(LTAX) 家庭消費支出變化率(DLCNS) 4. 家庭消費支出變化率(DLCNS) 貨幣供應M2變化率(DLM2) 而以下變數存在單向關係 1. 家庭消費支出變化率(DLCNS) 國內生產總值變化率(DLGDP) 2. 政府稅收(LTAX) 國內生產總值變化率(DLGDP) 最後從衝擊反映函數來看，以個體變數來看，家庭消費支出變化率(DLCNS)對於國內生產總值變化率(DLGDP)有負面影響而且影響最為劇烈，而其他變數對於國內生產總值變化率(DLGDP)影響相對式微；而以整體面來看，本文發現這些衝擊都是屬於短期，而且在8個期間內就會結束，回歸平穩，表示對於印度總體社會來說無法帶來長期的影響。

關鍵字

印度經濟；莫迪經濟學；向量自我迴歸模型；因果關係檢定；單根檢定；衝擊反應函數

並列摘要

This paper mainly focused on the influence of Modinomics on the whole India Macro-economy. India has been discussed for a long period and the whole world closely observed the variation of India in terms of its economic performance and country development. The majority of the scholar and professionals forecasted how enormous potential India has and many companies also evaluated the pros and cons of doing business in India. Therefore, this paper wanted to verify the influence of all variables on India’s GDP by the VAR model and concluded whether the Modinomics will bring short-term or long-term effects on Indian society. Under the research frame, this paper conducted unit root testing to make sure that there are no unit roots in the model. After the testing, the paper selected the optimal lag structure and developed a VAR model. Through the Granger Causality Test, the paper can understand what kind of relationships, unilateral or bilateral, existed between our variables. Finally, the paper presented the result of the Impulse Response Function. Briefly, the conclusion of the Granger Causality Test is that: these variables had a unilateral relationship 1. FDI DLGDP 2. DLCNS DLINV 3. LTAX DLCNS 4. DLCNS DLM2 And these variables had a bilateral relationship 1. DLCNS DLGDP 2. LTAX DLGDP Finally, the paper presented the result of the Impulse Response Function. From the Micro-perspective, DLCNS caused the largest and negative impacts on the DLGDP compared to the effect brought by other variables；from the Macro-perspective, all the impulse created by these variables, including DLCNS, DLGDP, DLINV, DLM2, FDI, LTAX, belonged to short-term shock, rather than long-term shock, and ended within 8 periods. So, after 8 periods, all these shocks disappeared and the whole economy went back to its stable situation, suggesting that the persistence effect of these Modinomics policies can’t last long.