臺資銀行投資東協經營情況分析

Operation analysis for Taiwanese Banks investing in ASEAN countries

黃詩明(Si-Meng Wong)

指導教授 ： 胡星陽

國立臺灣大學/管理學院/財務金融學研究所/碩士(2017年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU201701418

摘要

本研究主要是以臺灣銀行業佈局亞洲為背景，全面探討目前臺灣銀行業在海外（尤其東協）的經營情況，期望本研究能有助於臺灣政府制定臺灣銀行業佈局東協的相關政策，也為臺灣銀行業者評估與執行東協拓展計劃時提供參考。本研究範圍包括：臺資銀行近年來的佈局情況、進入目標國的方式、東協各國的經濟和銀行業情況、臺資銀行在海外（尤其在東協）的獲利情況以及影響臺資銀行在東協獲利的因素，最後部份為臺資銀行在東協經營的困難。
研究採用之方法主要是對銀行業高階主管的訪談、迴歸分析和閱讀文獻。
本研究主要發現有四：第一，自金管會鼓勵臺灣銀行業佈局亞洲後，其對外投資大增，尤其在東協投資方面，無論是投資件數或投資金額皆以驚人的速度成長。第二，臺灣銀行業對海外營收的依賴度近年來也逐漸增加，這有助於緩減臺灣銀行業過度競爭的困境。第三，東協子行的稅後資產報酬率整體表現較臺灣母行的稅後資產報酬率（ROA）來得佳，但近年來子行表現下降，並趨近於臺灣母行ROA；在稅後股東權益報酬率（ROE）方面，臺資母行ROE整體較子行佳。第四，本研究以迴歸分析的方法，成功找出影響東協獲利的原因，迴歸是對臺灣與東協國雙方的總體因素、東協國的金融環境和臺資銀行自身的個別因素三方面的變數作分析，結果發現所在東協國存貸款利差、該國銀行業經營情況（銀行業平均ROE）和該國GDP成長率與臺灣GDP成長率之差，以上三方面因素皆對臺資東協子行的獲利表現產生正面影響。
最後本研究認為未來臺灣銀行業應繼續擴展東協，但應以銀行業尚未飽和的國家為主，並應以當地人的市場為目標。除傳統分子行的形式外，本研究也建議臺資銀行可考慮以比較符合當地民眾需求的微型金融機構的方式進入東協。

關鍵字

銀行 ； 東協 ； 東南亞 ； 經營 ； 獲利

並列摘要

Based on Taiwanese banks’ expansion to Asian countries in recent years, we examine thoroughly the status of their overseas operation, particularly in ASEAN countries. We hope to provide some insights to Taiwanese government for policy making and to Taiwanese banks for assessments and developments of expansion to ASEAN countries. This research covers the followings: Taiwanese banks’ overseas expansion strategies, the current expansion progress, ASEAN countries’ economy and banking industry, Taiwanese banks’ overseas profitability, especially in ASEAN, a regression analysis to find out factors influencing the profitability in ASEAN countries, and difficulties of Taiwanese banks doing business in ASEAN.
In this research, we mainly use these three methods: interviewing top and middle-level managers at Taiwanese banks, doing regression analysis and reviewing literatures.
These are four main findings in this research. Firstly, in terms of investment, both Taiwanese banks’ investment cases and amounts increased significantly when Financial Supervisory Commission (FSC) started to urge them to expand Asia presence, especially in ASEAN countries. Secondly, Taiwanese banking industry’s dependability to overseas business increase gradually in recent years, that helps to reduce the damage of excessive competition of banking industry in Taiwan. Thirdly, in ASEAN countries, Taiwanese subsidiary banks’ ROA is better than its parent banks’ as a whole, but the subsidiary banks’ performance was getting worse, as a result the ROA difference between subsidiary banks and parent banks narrowed during the past few years; in term of ROE, Taiwanese parent banks performed better than its subsidiary banks in ASEAN. Fourthly, we find out the factors influencing the profitability status of Taiwanese banks doing business in ASEAN countries through regression models. The independent variables in which can be divided into three categories, the macroeconomic factors between Taiwan and ASEAN countries, the financial environment of ASEAN countries as well as Taiwanese banks individual factors. The result shows that ASEAN countries’ interest rate spread (lending rate minus deposit rate), average ROE of banking industry in ASEAN countries and the difference of GDP growth rate between ASEAN countries and Taiwan are the three factors providing positive significant effects to Taiwanese subsidiaries in ASEAN.
In conclusion, we suggest that Taiwanese banks continue to expand to ASEAN, but mainly to unsaturated markets, simultaneously target to the local people rather than only Taiwanese companies. Moreover, compared to traditional subsidiary banks and branches, we suggest Taiwanese banks to enter into ASEAN market by the form of micro-finance institution, which we believe would be more in line for local people’s needs.

並列關鍵字

bank ； ASEAN ； Southeast Asia ； operation ； profitability

參考文獻

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