- 學位論文
臺灣進口豬肉需求量預估與福利變動之分析
The Analysis of Taiwan Imported Pork Demand Prediction and Welfare Changes
摘要
豬肉為臺灣主要消費肉品之一，自1984年至2018年為止，都是我國國民消費最多的肉品。而進口豬肉占國內消費的量自2005年完全開放國內豬肉市場之後也一路成長至現在的15%左右。我國從2021年1月1日起開放含有萊克多巴胺的豬肉進口，此政策有可能會對臺灣進口豬肉消費者造成巨大的衝擊，所以本研究會使用近似理想需求體系模型做為基礎，對臺灣未來豬肉進口量進行預測及對這次開放萊克多巴胺所帶來後續價格衝擊進行福利分析。 本研究會利用稅則號列分類2002年1月至2020年12月的「冷凍去骨之豬後腿肉、肩胛肉、腰內肉、大里脊及其切割肉」建立需求體系等模型，實證結果顯示，向量自我迴歸模型在預測時是較好的模型，而且在所有的模型之中，預測美國豬肉的進口量都會減少，除了模型本身預測的結果，也因為在預測期間的2021年1月至2021年6月之中臺灣進口豬肉的總價值大幅減少，導致預測美國豬肉的進口量呈現減少的趨勢。而在福利變動分析的部分，同時假設了開放含有萊克多巴胺豬肉進口以及與各國簽訂自由貿易協定，臺灣進口豬肉的消費者全體平均每個月可以節省約123.17萬美元在進口豬肉上。同時，若只有美國豬肉進口價格變便宜的情況之下，臺灣每個月只會多進口155.26公噸的美國豬肉。
並列摘要
Pork is one of the main meat products consumed in Taiwan and has been the most consumed meat product in Taiwan since 1984 until 2018. Since 2005, when the domestic pork market was completely opened, imported pork has grown to about 15% of domestic consumption. The lifting the ban of ractopamine from January 1, 2021 is likely to have a significant impact on Taiwan's imported pork consumers. This study will use an almost ideal demand system model as the basis model for forecasting Taiwan's future pork imports and conducting a welfare analysis of the subsequent price impact of this opening. The study will model the demand system for "frozen boneless pork hind legs, shoulder blades, loin, loin, and cuts" from January 2002 to December 2020, and the empirical results show that the vector autoregression model is the better model for forecasting, and that U.S.A. pork imports are predicted to decrease in all models. It because the total value of imported pork in Taiwan decreases significantly during the forecast period from January 2021 to June 2021. In the welfare analysis, it is also assumed that the liberalization of pork with ractopamine imports and the signing of free trade agreements with various countries, and the empirical results shows that would save the average consumer of imported pork in Taiwan about $1,231,700 per month on imported pork. Meanwhile, if only U.S.A. pork imports become cheaper, Taiwan would only import 155.26 metric tons more U.S.A. pork per month.
參考文獻
延伸閱讀
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