LED照明產品市場滲透率與成長趨勢預測模型--以家用LED燈泡為例

A Forecasting Model for Penetration and Growth of LED Lighting Products-Household LED Bulb Example

李建森(Chien-Sen Lee)

指導教授 ： 周雍強

國立臺灣大學/工學院/工業工程學研究所/碩士(2013年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2013.00927

摘要

在節能減碳的趨勢，與各國陸續提出禁產、禁用或禁售白熾燈泡的時程下，LED廣被看好為下一世代照明光源，吸引許多企業投入。然而新技術產品的消費行為、商業模式與市場需求不確定性極高，投入廠商如何能正確判斷市場成長趨勢，避免過度投資或誤失良機，攸關企業的經營風險與策略，甚至影響到國家資源的投資效益，其中家用燈泡產品更是LED照明起飛的關鍵市場。所以本文將研究問題設定為「影響家用LED燈泡市場滲透率的因素有哪些？如何影響？企業如何因應？」。
　　本文的研究方法為：1)先以「科技接受模式Ⅱ」的理論，探討影響家用LED燈泡市場滲透率的因素有哪些。2)將其中可量化的變數，反應於消費者燈泡照明總成本中，先建立LED燈泡回收年限（payback year）的關係模型。再運用regression analysis和cost simulation等定量分析方法，找出回收年限和價格與市場滲透率的關係，建立家用LED燈泡市場滲率與成長趨勢模型，並進行情境分析。3)最後，針對非量化的總體環境變數，使用SRI情境分析的定性分析方法，建立未來可能的市場發展情境，再運用前面定量分析所得的趨勢模型，分析各情境下的市場趨勢後，提出未來各情境下廠商的因應策略。
　　本文的研究結果與結論為：1)影響家用LED燈泡市場滲透率的因素有「社會規範」、「產品特性」和「結果可展示性」三大類。2)建立家用LED燈泡市場滲透率與成長趨勢模型。並由模型得知，回收年限與價格，和市場滲透率呈負相關；且隨著市場的成熟度越高，兩者對市場滲透率的影響程度也越大。而在市場成長的過程中，價格甜蜜點將有兩個，以取代11W省電燈泡的9W LED燈泡為例，分別發生在Early Majority（NTD$350~NTD$270）和Late Majority（NTD$210以下），且第二個價格甜蜜點的市場滲透率成長幅度會是第一個的2倍以上。3)此外，市場滲透率也受到LED燈泡安裝與維護成本、電價、LED燈泡使用年限及功耗四項情境條件的影響。廠商在各條件影響下的因應策略則要隨著所處市場成長階段而異。4)最後，再綜合考量總體環境變數後，對於未來可能發生的市場情境，能採取的因應策略有差異化策略、目標集中策略與成本領導策略三種類型的選擇。

關鍵字

LED ； 市場滲透率 ； 科技接受模式 ； 回收年限 ； 迴歸分析 ； 情境分析

並列摘要

As household LED bulb market is the key market for LED lighting taking off, this thesis's research problems are " what are the factors that affect the household LED bulb market penetration? how do they impact the penetration? how should a LED company be?" In the trend of energy saving, carbon reduction and incandescent ban, LED lighting has become a popular next-generation lighting source. Many companies aggressively invested in LED lighting market. However, its uncertainty is extremely high because of unknown consumer behavior, business model and demand. Companies must figure out how to forecast the growth trend of LED lighting market to prevent business risks and make right strategies.
　　Firstly, by using Technology Acceptance Model Ⅱ, this thesis explored that there are three factors affecting the household LED bulb market penetration. They are social norms, product characteristics, and result demonstrability. Then, for the quantitative variables, the thesis established a quantitative model of the household LED bulb market penetration and growth trend, related to payback year and price, with cost simulation and regression analysis from the point of view about consumers' total cost. Finally, for the non-quantitative environment variables, the thesis established future scenarios with SRI's scenario analysis, forecasted the market trend of these scenarios with the quantitative model, and suggested some strategies for LED companies.
　　There are some significant conclusions in this thesis. First, the payback year and the price are negatively correlated with the market penetration, and the higher the market maturity is, the higher their influence are. Secondly, there are two sweet points of the household LED bulb market, NTD$350~NTD$270 and less than NTD$210. They will respectively occur in the stage of Early Majority and Late Majority during Technology Adoption Lifecycle. Thirdly, there are 4 conditions that affect the penetration. They are installation and maintaining cost, electricity price, lifetime, and power consumption of household LED bulb. The strategies for these conditions depend on the stage of the market. Finally, for the future scenarios under the consideration about environmental variables, there are 3 competitive strategies for a LED company, differentiation, focus, and cost leadership.

並列關鍵字

LED ； penetration ； Technology Acceptance Model ； payback year ； regression analysis ； scenario analysis

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