航空城對桃園市長選舉結果的影響

本研究探討航空城對桃園2018年市長選舉的影響。以桃園504個村里為單位，將航空城對鄭文燦的影響分為直接影響與間接影響，直接影響為選民預期航空城的外部效益，間接影響為選民對航空城帶來的工商發展機會，所做的經濟評估，並且在控制人口結構、經社背景變數、施政表現、地方屬性與空間因素後，觀察航空城對桃園2018年市長選舉的影響。研究發現，航空城的直接影響對鄭文燦的影響不明顯，但是間接影響的效果十分明顯。二級產業人口在2018年支持鄭文燦，而且跟四年前相比更加支持，三級產業人口雖然在2018年支持鄭文燦，但是跟四年前相比支持度有所下降，並且透過地理加權回歸(GWR)發現，在村里層面，產業別人口會因為跟航空城距離的遠近，對鄭文燦的得票率差，與2018年得票率有不同程度的影響。此結果與文獻敘述相符，選民會受到經濟評估、現任者優勢的影響，傾向投給執政者。本研究也發現，族群是影響鄭文燦支持度重要的因素，族群仍是桃園選舉不可忽視的要素，而經社背景變數、期初值、鄰近效應對鄭文燦支持度有明顯的影響。

關鍵字

桃園航空城；鄭文燦；空間分析法；空間自相關；經濟投票

並列摘要

This study explores the impact of Taoyuan aerotropolis on Taoyuan’s 2018 mayoral election. Taking the 504 villages in Taoyuan as a unit, the impact of Taoyuan aerotropolis on Mr. Cheng is divided into direct impact and indirect impact. The direct impact is the external benefits expected by the voters of the Taoyuan Aerotropolis, and the indirect impact is the business development opportunities brought by the voters to Taoyuan aerotropolis. After controlling ethnic group, socio-economic backgrounds, governance performance, local attributes and spatial factors, observe the impact of Taoyuan aerotropolis on Taoyuan’s 2018 mayoral election. The study found that the direct influence of Taoyuan aerotropolis is nonsignificant, but the indirect influence is highly significant. The secondary industry population supported Mr. Cheng in 2018 and was even more supportive compared to four years ago. Although the tertiary industry population supported Mr. Cheng in 2018, its support has declined compared with four years ago, and it has returned through geographic weighting regression (GWR) found that at the village level, the industrial population will have a different degree of influence on Mr. Cheng’s vote rate due to the distance from the Taoyuan aerotropolis. This result is consistent with the literature review that voters will be affected by economic evaluation and incumbent advantages, and tend to vote for ruler. This study also found that ethnic group is an important factor affecting Mr. Cheng support, which indicates that ethnic group is still a determinative factor in Taoyuan elections. Besides, socio-economic backgrounds, percentage of votes obtained by Mr. Cheng in 2014, and neighborhood effects have a significant impact on Mr. Cheng support.